Like it or not, the controversial incumbent President Hamid Karzai is now the declared winner of the ill-fated August 20 vote. Obviously, it’s a win-win situation for the Afghan leader who despite having earned himself universal condemnation for massively rigged elections still gets to wear the crown, albeit a thorny one.

There had been interesting developments in the run up to the cancellation of the vote. First, Karzai’s only rival Abdullah Abdullah pulled out of the race ostensibly protesting Karzai’s refusal to sack the election commissioner before the vote.  Secondly, the swift US response virtually welcoming Abdullah’s decision. For despite Karzai’s camp initially insisting it will be held per schedule, the security situation was seen as being non-conducive to hold a rerun. The efforts of the US and other coalition members to arrive at a solution seem to have reached a natural conclusion. Not surprisingly, the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon rushed to Kabul in desperate attempts to resolve the political deadlock gripping the country since the August election.

A lack of legitimate political leadership remains the main problem in Afghanistan. Even US President Barack Obama’s decision on sending additional forces to fight the war hangs in limbo because of the non-existence of a political setup in Afghanistan. Not only does this administration has serious reservations about Karzai’s past performance but appear unsure about its ability to work with the Afghan leader tainted by poll fraud. The US has to swallow a bitter pill and restart relations with the much-demonised Karzai. Weighing the pros and cons in exposing US forces and its very nervous coalition partners to bigger security risks in holding the rerun, the US may have played a hand in persuading Abdullah to take 
this decision.

Speculation aside, Abdullah’s reasons for withdrawal also listed security as a major concern. Even so, the bigger problem for the US now will be backing a government that has lost 
all credibility.

Once again security has played the determining factor in shaping the political future of the country. The Taleban having warned of targeting the second run had already stepped up the attacks targeting the government, foreign forces and even the UN guesthouses and personnel in Kabul. The UN was targeted specifically to deter future involvement in the electoral process.

US support to Karzai will however be conditional. In all probability, Karzai will have to drop certain aides and political allies, come down hard on corruption and concentrate on boosting security forces including police.  It is hoped that this time around Karzai will be able to deliver on his commitments—not just to the coalition of the willing—but to the people of Afghanistan.