SINGAPORE - Shanghai copper fell 1 percent on Monday, chasing losses in London in the previous session after weak U.S. consumer data and rising risk aversion. U.S. consumer spending fell last month and sentiment turned gloomier in October, data showed on Friday. But factory activity in the U.S. Midwest expanded for the first time in more than a year, although employment conditions worsened.
That sent a key gauge of Wall Street angst, the CBOE Volatility Index, up almost 24 percent in its biggest single-day spike since October 2008, while equities, oil and metals sold off.
“I am little surprised about the extent of the sell-off. Sentiment has been softening for a while now. Maybe the worry is that it reflects the chance of a more restrained recovery,” said David Moore, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
Moore said the market would pore over a series of U.S. numbers this week including Institute of Supply Managment numbers, a Federal Reserve rate decision, payrolls numbers and automotive sales.
China’s vast manufacturing sector expanded in October at its fastest in 18 months, a survey showed on Sunday, and economists said they expected the momentum to be sustained in coming months.
On Monday, HSBC’s read for China PMI rose to an 18-month high in October of 55.4 from 55.0 in September. It was the seventh month in a row that the index, compiled by British research firm Markit, has been above the watershed of 50 that divides expansion and contraction.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose $55 to $6,535 a tonne by 0330 GMT, paring Friday’s loss of 2.8 percent. Copper ended the month up 5.2 percent, recouping September’s loss of 4.9 percent.
Shanghai’s benchmark third month contract fell 540 yuan to 50,660 after ending October up 6.3 percent.
“We are seeing some pricing at around 50,000 yuan. Some consumers are willing to price at that level. But in spite of the strong China data, physical consumption remains a little soft,” a trader in Shanghai said.
“The PMI won’t have a huge impact on sentiment. In our view the Shanghai Stock market is probably the biggest influence in our time zone.”
LME copper stocks rose 800 tonnes to 372,200, their highest level in more than five months, after a slight fall on Thursday.
Shanghai equities were steady on Monday, shrugging off the bearish lead from Wall Street in the previous session.
Copper stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7 percent from a week earlier, but it was zinc stocks that stole the limelight, soaring to 145,536 tonnes from 117,706 tonnes.
Traders said the surge was a result of a stockholder putting material into the exchange to take advantage of the 400 yuan contango between the first month and the third month, which covers the cost of storage, insurance and interest on the metal.
“We expect more stocks to flow in as the contango is very large. But the buying interest from speculators is still strong. despite the stocks rise,” the Shanghai trader said.
Shanghai zinc fell 0.6 percent to 16,725 yuan, off an early low of 16,350 yuan,
LME metal rose $45 or 2.1 percent to $2,205, reversing Friday’s 1.4 percent decline. LME zinc ended October 9.7 percent higher its biggest monthly rise since July, while Shanghai futures rose 9.8 percent, their strongest since March.
CBA’s Moore said: “High prices are impacting the supply side. We are seeing restarts of capacity. We see a surplus this year, a smaller surplus next year and a pullback in prices. But the outlook for 2011 and 2012 is a lot more positive.”