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Shanghai copper lower despite dollar, oil
(Reuters)
5 November 2009
SHANGHAI - Shanghai copper edged lower on Thursday, and is expected to move in a narrow range, under pressure of the spot market, despite support from a weaker U.S. dollar and steady oil prices.

Shanghai’s benchmark third-month copper futures contract fell 0.6 percent to 50,830 yuan a tonne by 0225 GMT, despite a 1.7 percent rise in London copper in the previous session.

Three-month copper futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange shed $20 to $6,550 a tonne.

“I don’t expect copper prices to go down much, exactly because those markets are being supportive,” said Lin Yuhui, deputy general manager of Jinhui Futures, expecting copper prices to be rangebound for at least a few weeks.

“Even though copper is bullish in medium and long term, the pace of ascent needs some adjustment. Prices would either be rangebound for a while to consolidate, or move down before rising higher.”

Pressure on the dollar pushed it towards multi-month lows versus a basket of currencies after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged near zero, even as it expressed confidence in the U.S. economy.

U.S. crude futures hovered around the $80 level where they had closed a day earlier after U.S. crude inventories showed an unexpected decline.

Investors are eyeing monthly U.S. employment data due Friday. Forecasts call for the unemployment rate to edge up to 9.9 percent in October from 9.8 percent in September; non-farm payrolls are expected to fall by 175,000 in October after a decline of 263,000 in September.

“The abundant spot supply is weighing down on prices, but bullish sentiment has not disappeared. Price movement is stuck in these two forces,” said Li Rong, an analyst at Great Wall Futures.

“There is very little going on, as reflected in the shrinking trading activity in the market.”

China’s September copper imports staged a surprise jump, and production also peaked, but the real demand picture remained murky.

“Shanghai is obviously dragging down London today,” said a Shanghai-based trader, “The bullish sentiment in China is not as strong as in London. China’s end-consumers and people with import contracts, are not willing to buy at the current price levels.

“There is not a clear direction in the market, therefore prices won’t fluctuate too much.”

Supply side concerns continue to support prices. Workers may go on strike at Antamina, a major copper pit in Peru, if contract talks with the company fail. The strike at Chile’s Spence copper mine has lasted three weeks.

LME aluminium fell $11 to $1,910 a tonne, and Shanghai aluminium edged down 0.1 percent to 15,210 yuan a tonne.

LME lead fell 2 percent to $2,300 a tonne.

Demand for lead in China is weakening as production of batteries for electric bicycles falls in the winter, even though demand from the car sector stays steady.

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