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India's August retail inflation above economists' expectations at 3.65% y/y

Analysts expect India central bank to maintain inerest rates for now

Published: Thu 12 Sep 2024, 5:02 PM

  • By
  • Reuters

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Customers buy fruits and vegetables at an open air evening market in Ahmedabad. — Reuters file

Customers buy fruits and vegetables at an open air evening market in Ahmedabad. — Reuters file

India’s August retail inflation was slightly higher than economists’ expectations on the back of a sharp rise in vegetable prices, according to government data released on Thursday.

Annual retail inflation was 3.65% in August, compared with a revised 3.60% in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast August inflation at 3.5%.

Sujan Hajra, chief economist and executive director, Anand Rathi Shares And Stock Brokers, Mumbai, said: “Recent inflation readings have consistently come in below the projections of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), indicating a softening trend. Despite this easing of inflationary pressures, lower-than-expected GDP growth for the quarter ending June 2024 and the likelihood of a rate cut by the U.S. Fed, we expect the RBI to maintain its current policy rate for now. However, the central bank’s stance and forward guidance are likely to turn more dovish, signalling potential future easing.”

Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mumbai, said: “The slight uptick in August inflation was largely led by the surprise on food prices, while core inflation remained steady. Overall, the Q2 average inflation appears to be lower by 60 basis points than RBI’s estimate of 4.4%. However, we continue to expect full year estimate at 4.5% and hence RBI to remain focussed on inflation over the next few months. “Meanwhile, given benign global conditions and persistent easy liquidity conditions we see high probability of a change in the policy stance to neutral in the upcoming policy.”

Swati Arora, economist, HDFC Bank, Mumbai, said: “Core inflation has bottomed out and is expected to rise going forward, perhaps moving above 4% over the coming months reflecting higher gold prices, improvement in pricing power and recovery in demand. Besides, a low base is also likely to weigh on core inflation reading. For the full year, we continue to expect CPI to average at 4.6%.”

Radhika Rao, senior economist, DBS Bank, Singapore: “High frequency data for food was pointing toward a moderation in the sequential prints, which along with base effects have softened the headline print in the month. As it stands, RBI’s forecast for the quarter is likely to be undershot by 40-50 basis points. The data is unlikely to be of consequence for the central bank, as the governor had signalled that July-August will be looked through.”



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