German ICUs expect Covid peak to hit hospitals by Christmas

Germany is likely to reach a peak of its fourth wave of Covid-19 infections by mid-December and this could mean 6,000 intensive care beds occupied by Christmas, the country’s association for intensive care medicine (DIVI) said on Wednesday.

Andreas Schuppert, a forecaster for the DIVI association, told a news conference he was “moderately optimistic” the peak in new cases would come in the next two weeks, but warned this would take time to have its full impact on hospitals.

“It is an ominous situation,” DIVI president Gernot Marx told reporters. “We would be well advised to react immediately. We must get ahead of the situation.”

About 4,600 intensive care beds are currently occupied by Covid-19 patients, compared with a previous high of 5,745 on January 3 when Germany was in a full lockdown.

However, the DIVI said a shortage of nursing staff means Germany now only has about 9,000 beds where patients can receive artificial respiration, down from 12,000 a year ago.

The Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s state infectious disease agency, reported 67,186 new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, up 302 from a week ago, and 446 deaths, the highest daily figure since Feb. 18 - bringing the overall death toll to 101,790.

However, the seven-day incidence rate per 100,000 fell for a second day to 442.9 people, from 452.2 people on Tuesday.

Germany’s federal and regional governments agreed on Tuesday to take action, including stepping up the vaccination campaign and restricting contact, especially for unvaccinated people.

Three of the infected people returned from a business trip to South Africa on Nov. 26 and November 27 respectively, and the fourth person is a family member of one of the returnees. All four showed moderate symptoms of Covid-19.