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Expert Predicts Recovery by 2009
DUBAI — Wharton financial professor and author of The Stocks for the Long Run, Professor Jeremy Siegel, predicts that the global economy will turn around by the second half of 2009. The most significant cause of the downturn, according to Siegel, is that financial firms bought, held and insured large quantities of risky, mortgage-related assets on borrowed money.
Due to deliver a keynote address at the first-ever Wharton Global Alumni Forum to be held in the Middle East from March 11-12, 2009, in Dubai, Professor Siegel is an expert on macroeconomics, financial markets, long-run asset returns and demographics.
“During the dot-com IPOs of the early 1990s, the firms that underwrote the stock offerings did not hold on to those stocks,” says Siegel as quoted on Knowledge@Wharton, the Wharton School’s journal of business analysis. “They flipped them. But in the case of mortgage-backed securities, the financial firms decided these were good assets to hold. That was their fatal flaw.”
According to Siegel, the US economy is not nearly as battered as it was during the early 1980s, when unemployment, inflation, and interest rates were all considerably higher than they are today. Stocks, as evaluated by their price-to-earnings ratios, are undervalued to the point where they could draw enough investors to spark a recovery before the end of 2009. “I think by the second half of this year, things might turn around faster than people are now predicting,” says Siegel.
issacjohn@khaleejtimes.com
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