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GCC Oil Income may Cross $4.7 Trillion by 2020

DUBAI - Oil earnings of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are likely to surpass $4.7 trillion by 2020, said a report.

At the Opec-targeted floor price of $50 per barrel, this will be 2.5 times higher than their oil earnings over the last 14 years, according to ‘Global Megatrends 2009’, a report published by Ernst & Young.

Middle East economies are predicted to be a real growth story for the next few years, even though the region are not be immune to the effects of the global downturn.

“Regional economies are well-placed to capitalise on opportunities emerging from the crisis, despite the fact that there are some concerns over issues related to the tightening of the credit markets and softening of property prices,” says Phil Gandier, Head of Transactions Advisory Services at Ernst & Young Middle East.

“These increased earnings will allow GCC economies to buy additional assets globally or finance local infrastructure developments when many other economies weaken. Their relatively moderate regulation and tax regimes will be even bigger attractions as European and US business environments tighten under the pressure of the ongoing global recession,” he added.

Countries like Egypt, Iran and Vietnam have been identified as potential rivals to BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China), as well as some other developed economies in future. The study indicates that the global economic landscape is changing and emerging markets are playing an increasingly significant role.

Economic power is moving from developed to emerging economies — from West to East and North to South. Emerging economies accounted for 44 per cent of the global GDP in 2007. While projected GDP growth rates for major developed markets in 2009 are now predicted to lie between -0.2 per cent and 0.5 per cent, emerging markets are expected to grow at 6.1 per cent on average, with China 9.3 per cent and India 6.9 per cent performing even better.

The hunger of emerging economies for growth, alongside their rapidly industrialising economies and growing populations should set them on the path to recovery more quickly. In the case of China and Russia, their huge accumulated reserves ($1.9 trillion and $560 billion respectively) are expected to ease the pain.

Multinationals (MNCs) in emerging markets are now challenging the mega corporations of the West. Attributing the growth to the confidence and scale of MNCs in emerging markets, the study says that ten largest emerging market companies had combined revenues of $1 trillion in 2008 - more than the GDPs of Australia or The Netherlands.

Other trends include the rise of sovereign wealth funds, private equity and hedge funds as the new power brokers. Their combined assets quadrupled between 2000 and 2007 to reach $11.5 trillion. However, in the short-term, hedge funds and private equity firms will be under pressure.

“We expect private equity and sovereign wealth funds to first stabilise after dealing with the immediate impact of the credit crisis and then to take bold positions in various industries and economies with a long term view,” said Fouad Alaeddin, managing partner, Ernst & Young Middle East.