Baghdad Blues

However, the renewal of violence sends out fresh signals that internal security is more fragile than assumed, though the danger was anticipated in military circles. The latest outburst of violence was a double suicide attack carried by two female bombers at a Shia shrine in northern Baghdad that killed more than 70 people, mostly visiting Iranian pilgrims. These attacks that were preceded a few days back by sporadic suicide attacks in Baghdad and the Diyala province; they are believed to be carried out by Al Qaeda affiliated groups. There is also speculation that it could be the work of some Sunni insurgent groups, who recently began a campaign of violence, under the name of “The Good harvest” in order to discredit and destabilise the current Shia-led government.

The concern in the US over the sudden turnaround in security in Iraq was visible as the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, made a surprise visit to Baghdad on Saturday to show continuing focus and commitment to the stability of the Iraqi nation. Clinton said, “We want to display and reinforce our continuing commitment to the Iraqi people and to the stability, sovereignty and self-reliance of Iraq.”

The message was meant for the insurgents: to counter the widespread speculation that the US had been lulled into as violence and terrorist attacks dropped dramatically under a new counter-insurgency plan that was implemented under General Petraeus over the past year.

One of the major election agendas of US President Barack Obama, the withdrawal schedule was among the key policy decisions he undertook on assuming office. Even as Iraq stabilised, there was a perceptible shift in focus towards Afghanistan with the change of government in the US. However, the US assessment on Iraq cannot be discredited as one based on false assumptions; it was primarily due to varied indicators that showed marked improvement in security, political stability and less sectarian infighting. In addition, Iraq witnessed a largely peaceful provincial election this January that showed a popular rejection of sectarian and ideological based parties.

Even while Iraq enjoyed relative peace and stability, sporadic insurgent attacks were expected as the phased withdrawal of US forces, currently totalling 140,000, is expected to start this summer — with most troops, except the 50,000 reserve force, to leave by the end of 2010. The present situation shows the insurgents’ capability of obtaining explosives and bypassing security forces to conduct their operations. Even while the US focuses on strengthening Iraqi security forces that have increased in number to 600,000, it should remain alert to the threat from insurgents that continue to pose a security challenge.