Tehran appears to be in a rush to use its conventional power and Revolutionary Guards to sow more trouble in the region
Published: Fri 16 Oct 2015, 4:07 PM
The presence of Iranian and Hezbollah troops on the ground in Syria was no secret, but reports that more forces are being pushed in for a major offensive means this war will be fought increasingly - and openly on sectarian and proxy lines. Wiping out Daesh is not the objective for Iran and the militant group. It is to keep President Bashar Al Assad in power at any cost, against any enemy that comes in his way.
It now appears that the embattled president will live to fight another day with Russian air support and his old regional allies doing the job for him on his turf. Iran has been Hezbollah's and Syria's main backer, providing funds for its reign of terror in the region. The Lebanese militant group, which considers Israel its traditional foe, is now spread all across the globe, with its influence spreading even to Latin America.
Iran's nuclear ambitions have been scaled down after it struck a tactical deal with Western powers, Russia and China. Sanctions will be lifted under agreement, and the regime in Tehran appears to be in a rush to use its conventional power and Revolutionary Guards to sow more trouble in the region. In public it says it desires friendly ties with Gulf neighbours, but does exactly the opposite, the developments in Yemen being an example.
Iran is expected to recoup $100 billion in frozen oil profits once sanctions are lifted, which means the regime will have enough cash to fuel its revolution across the region. The country is back in the oil market and can export crude to buyers worldwide. Its banking system is also set to do business with the West and other countries.
Tehran is becoming attraction for foreign companies, who are already courting it for investments. Years of sanctions crippled the economy. Oil exports fell sharply from 2011 to 2013 and billions of dollars were lost. Gross domestic product slipped, inflation rose sharply by more than 40 per cent and Iranians found it hard to buy essential like food and gas.
Not anymore. According to some estimates, the country's economy could expand by 5 per cent to 8 per cent every year.
But the regime is busy with hegemonic designs in the regions instead of focusing on putting its house in order and driving growth. To understand Syria's problems, it is important to follow the money - to Iran.
The regime has come in from the cold. It is armed, dangerous and flush with cash to power its proxy wars. A divided region could suit its style. It also helps that one superpower is reluctant to oppose it after the nuclear deal. With the other resurgent power on its side, Syria stares at a sectarian abyss. Blame it on Iran's money.