Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa: The boy who could be chess king

In the annals of sports history, including in chess, arguably the most cerebral of sports, upsets — an unexpected result — are always an exciting possibility. Fans love an underdog, and when an unfancied or lower ranked player or team takes down a top ranked superstar or champion team, a frisson of excitement courses through the sport’s ecosystem. Is this the arrival of a new star? Is the old order changing? The world is always looking for the next Mohamed Ali, the next Usain Bolt, the next Roger Federer.

Typically, though, the upset is a one-off event, with the top dog losing because he was having an off-day or was off-color. In 2013, when the great Federer, by then already a seven-time Wimbledon winner, lost in the second round to a man named Sergiy Stakhovsky, who was ranked 116th in the world, few expected the Ukrainian to carve a niche in tennis’ Hall of Fame. After a modest career, Stakhovsky eventually went on to become a vintner in Europe before signing up with the Ukrainian military this year to fight the Russians.

Chess, which returns to the Arabian Gulf this month with the resumption of the Abu Dhabi and Dubai Open after a two-year hiatus on account of Covid-19, has seen its share of upsets. From the relatively unknown Alexander Huzman defeating the great Garry Kasparov in the Euro Cup in 2003, to Oliver Touzane, a player with an Elo (ELO is a rating system to calculate the relative skill levels of chess players. It is named after its creator Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-American physics professor) rating of 2300, taking down five-time world champion Vishwanathan Anand in 2001, the history of the game is littered with ambushes.

Even chess masters, with an Elo rating below 2300, who are mere mortals before grandmasters (Elo rating 2500 and above) are known to occasionally trip up super grandmasters (2700 and above), of which there have been only around 50 in the game’s history.

By that token, Indian chess grandmaster Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa’s spectacular win — actually multiple victories -— over Norwegian world champion Magnus Carlsen at FTX Crypto Cup in Miami last week was not entirely unexpected. Pragg or Praggu, as he is known in the chess community, had defeated Carlsen twice this year, albeit in rapid games. Although he has never defeated the legend in a classical game (to be fair they have played only once, with Carlsen winning), rapid and blitz games are thought to provide greater opportunities for upsets. Think Test cricket versus T20, the latter giving even weaker teams better chances on a good day.

Still, the fact that Pragg (Elo 2661) defeated Carlsen (Elo 2864) in three successive games — a rapid and two blitzes -— jolted the chess world, with record keepers scurrying to check when the world champion last lost three consecutive games in four hours. Carlsen, you see is considered not only the greatest of all time (GOAT) in classical chess, but also in rapid and blitz. Although he eventually won the trophy by virtue of a higher point count, Pragg came a creditable second in a strong field that included world #4 Alireza Firouzja (Elo 2778), world #6 Levon Aronian (2775), world #9 Anish Giri (2760), all of whom Pragg, who is ranked a distant 89th, defeated en route to his final game against Carlsen. That’s roughly akin to a world’s 89th ranked tennis player defeating Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic in a tournament, perhaps in one-set games.

Let’s examine if that presages a future champion.

Carlsen and his acolytes had their excuses for the loss. The world champion himself explained in a post-match interview that he was feeling less than 100 per cent and had slept badly the night before the match. And once he was sure he had won the trophy after they tied a 2-2 in the four 20-minute rapid games (they drew the first two and then each won one) because of his points lead from other matches, he appeared to relax a bit, and Pragg won the two tie-breaker blitz games for an overall victory.

Pragg, too, seemed to suggest Carlsen was having fun after ensuring he had the title, and made light of his own win. On the flip side, Carlsen, too, said Pragg had lost steam towards the end of the tournament (having played 24 rapids in six days before meeting Carlsen) and had played below par in the final game. Perhaps they were both being polite to each other because they will meet a lot more often now that Pragg has reached the upper echelons of the sport.

Pragg’s win must be seen in context of his overall performance over the past two years in which he has defeated almost all Top Ten players in various tournaments. This cannot be a fluke. As he himself said in one interview on the sidelines of the Miami tournament, his world ranking of 89 is underweight. From the time he defeated, as a stripling of 14 in 2018, Filipino-American Wesley So (Pragg’s first win against a Top 10 player), his chess star has been on the ascendent. He then went on to scalp former world champion (2005), Bulgarian Veselin Topolov, at the Gibraltar Masters in 2020.

In 2021, his list of big “kills” included world # 15 Teimur Radjabov, world #16 Sergey Karjakin, and world #18 Jan-Krzysztof Duda, all three scalps coming at the New in Chess Classic tournament. Qualifying for the Meltwater Champions Chess Tour in April 2021, he finished in 10th place with a score of 7/15 (+4-5=6), including wins against Radjabov, Duda, Karjakin, and Johan-Sebastian Christiansen as well as a draw against World Champion Magnus Carlsen.

The giant-killing spree accelerated in 2022. He took down Carlsen and Aronian at the Airthings Masters in February besides accounting for Vladislav Artemiev (world #33) and Andrey Esipenko (#45). In the Charity Cup in March, he took down China’s Ding Liren (now ranked world # 2 behind Carlsen) and Jorden Van Foreest (#61). In the Oslo Esports Club, he took down Shakriyar Mamedyarov, the current world #10, and Vietnam’s Le Quang Liem, the world #21, although he lost twice to Carlsen. He came back to beat Carlsen again at the Chessable Masters, while also taking a game off Ding Liren, who eventually won the event.

No, not a fluke.

To be sure, he has also lost games to many of these players, and in most events, he finishes in the middle of the table. At Airthings, 12th out of 16; at Charity Cup, 10th out of 16, at the Oslo Esports Cup, fourth in a field of eight. But as we saw again in Miami, where he finished runner up to Carlsen, he belongs in this elite company. Just the sheer number of Top 25 players he has brought down in the last two years attests to this. But since many of his wins have been in rapid and blitz tournaments that don’t earn Elo points (but has greater prize money), his wins don’t reflect in his current ranking.

Sure, his peers in the growing Indian line up have also notched up a few wins — Dommaraju Gukesh, his friend and contemporary from the time they were tweens, beat Caruana at the 22nd Chess Olympiad in Chennai earlier this month on his way to eight consecutive wins; Vidit Gujarati, 27, another brilliant Indian star, has defeated Alireza Firouzja (world #4), Levon Aronian (world #6), Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (world #11), and Jan-Krzysztof Duda (world #18). Pentala Harikrishna, the second ranked Indian after Vishy Anand, has downed Firouzja, Duda, and on a solitary occasion, even Carlsen. Arjun Erigaisi, who won the Abu Dhabi Masters this week, has victories over Mamedyarov, Radjabov, Aronian, and Sam Shankland among the Top 25.

But Pragg, despite his 89th rank, now has the momentum and the media in thrall with his current streak. Can he sustain it and get even better?