US voters narrowly support Trump's tariff pitch, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

Donald Trump's campaign vow to increase tariffs on imported goods, particularly from China, has the support of a narrow majority of US voters, illustrating his economic advantage over rival Vice-President Kamala Harris, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.

The Republican former president and his Democratic opponent have both vowed to pursue tax cuts if they win the Novmber 5 election. But voters also credit Trump with being more likely to lower the $35 trillion national debt — even though independent economic forecasters say his proposals would have the opposite effect.

Some 56 per cent of registered voters in the September 11-12 poll said they were more likely to support a candidate backing a new 10 per cent tariff, or tax, on all imports, as well as a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China. By comparison, 41 per cent said they were less likely to support a candidate attached to that proposal.

The poll showed Harris with an overall 5-percentage-point lead over Trump nationally, though the US presidential race will largely be decided in about seven battleground states where the race is tighter.

The poll details Trump's strengths on a key issue, the US economy.

"This is what's keeping the election so close," said Karlyn Bowman, a polling expert at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

Bowman said Trump's advantage flows from a perception the economy did well during his 2017-2021 administration, and from his success convincing voters US economic problems stemmed from underhanded economic competition from other countries, notably China.

The poll found one in three Democrats said they were more likely to vote for a candidate backing higher tariffs and steep levies on Chinese goods, compared with two-thirds who said they were less likely to do so. Independent voters mirrored the wider electorate.

Until the Covid-19 pandemic ravaged the global economy in 2020, the US economy by many measures performed well during the Trump administration, boosted by tax cuts for consumers. Unemployment was at its lowest in decades, although the national debt was rising and would explode during the pandemic.

This year, Trump has promised an array of tax cuts on the campaign trail, including ending income tax on tipped income — a proposal Harris also supports. On Thursday, he vowed to end taxes on overtime pay.

Seventy per cent of registered voters supported the idea of exempting tips from taxes.

Trump called himself a "tariff man" during his presidency as he slapped levies on Chinese imports. Economists are wary of the idea, including at Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs, which estimates Trump's tariffs and other policies would slow the economy.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll gathered responses online from 1,405 registered voters, with a margin of error of about three percentage points.