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Heavy polling in Kerala raises Cong hopes

According to unofficial estimates, the polling percentage crossed 73 per cent one hour before the end of the polling. The Election Commission figures were 70 per cent. The polling is likely to cross 75 per cent since large queues were seen in several polling booths in most constituencies. The turnout crossed 75 per cent only thrice since 1977.

The highest turnout was recorded at Kannur that topped the polling in 2009 with 80.76 per cent. The polling at Kannur at 5 pm was 78 per cent. The polling in other northern constituencies of Vatakara, Kasargod and Calicut was above 75 per cent. The polling was low in the southern constituencies, except in Quilon that is witnessing the state’s most keenly watched contest. The turnout at Quilon crossed 70 per cent while it ranged between 65 and 70 per cent in Trivandrum, Attingal, Pathanamthitta and Mavelikkara.

The polling was above 70 per cent in most constituencies in Central Kerala. Chalakkudy, where film actor Innocent is pitted against a Congress veteran, recorded the highest polling of 74 per cent. Kottayam recorded the lowest polling of 70 per cent.

The heavy polling indicates an intense electoral battle. The ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front (LDF) terms the high polling as a verdict for a secular government at the Centre and against the murder politics being pursued by the Communist Party of India (Marxist).

Defence Minister A K Antony and senior Congress leaders claim the outcome will be a repeat of 1977, when the UDF won all the 20 seats. Interestingly, the turnout was high in northern constituencies of Vatakara, Kannur, Calicut and Kasargod where murder politics dominated the campaign.

The CPM sees the surge in the turnout as a consolidation against the misrule of the UPA government at the Centre and the UDF government in the state. Party secretary Pinarayi Vijayan termed it as a wave in favour of the LDF. He said that the Congress will see a wipe-out in the state.

The polling does not suggest a consolidation of Hindu votes on account of Modi factor. The polling in Trivandrum, which is top in the list of Bharatiya Janata Party’s hopeful seats, was the lowest in the state. The polling in Kasargod, where the party’s prime ministerial candidate campaigned, was also one of the lowest in the northern Kerala.

Heavy polling in both the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls has mostly favoured the UDF. A close examination of the results in the last four decades shows that the UDF had won 10 or more seats whenever the polling went above 70 per cent. The only exception was in 2004 when the LDF won 18 seats when the polling was 71.43 per cent.

The UDF won all the 20 seats in 1977 when the turnout was the second highest (79.2 per cent) in the four decades. It won 17 seats each in 1989, when the highest polling of 79.25 per cent was recorded, and in 1984 when the third highest turnout of 77.33 per cent was recorded. The UDF tally was 16 in 2009 when the polling was 73.35 per cent.

The LDF had secured 12 seats in 1980, when the polling was the lowest (62.14%) since 1977. It secured 9 seats each in 1998 and 1999 when the polling was 70.65 per cent and 70.19 per cent respectively. It won 10 seats in 1996 when polling was 71.13 per cent. 


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