Middle East needs aircraft worth $590 billion

Al Fursan aerobatic team performs at the Dubai Airshow

Middle East traffic will grow 30 per cent faster than world average traffic growth in the next two-decades that will require around 2,460 new passenger and freighter aircraft worth $590 billion, according to latest estimates by Airbus.
Aviation growth in the Middle East has been so impressive; few regions of the world can match it, top officials of Airbus said at a news conference on the second day of Dubai Airshow 2015.
In the last decade, travel to from and within the region has quadrupled earning the region the title of today's aviation crossroads as over 90 per cent of the world's population can connect via the Middle East. Latest estimates say aviation supports two million jobs and $116 billion in GDP in the region.
In the next 20 years (2015-2034), traffic in the Middle East will grow at six per cent well above the world average of 4.6 per cent. This will drive a need for nearly 2,460 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at $590 billion. Of these nearly 1,890 will be for growth and 570 for replacements. By 2034, the fleet of passenger and freighter aircraft in the Middle East region will almost treble from nearly 1,100 in 2015, to over 2,950 by 2034.
"The impressive rise of the Middle East as the world's aviation crossroads is in large part due to wide-body aircraft," said John Leahy, chief operating officer for Customers at Airbus.
Long haul is at the heart of international traffic growth, this is possible through the use of wide-body aircraft like the A380, A330, and increasingly in the future the A350 and the A330neo. In the next 20 years, the region will require some 1,570 wide-body aircraft to meet demand. Domestic and inter-regional growth is becoming increasingly significant also growing at nearly six per cent. Fuelled by urbanisation, an increase in the number of mega-cities from four to nine, and a doubling in the propensity to travel for business and tourism (leisure and cultural), by 2034, the Middle East will need an additional 890 single aisle aircraft driven by these trends.
Emerging economies are now the real engines of worldwide traffic growth. Economic growth rates in neighbouring economies such as China, India, and Africa will average 5.8 per cent per year, doubling the number of middle classes to four billion people. By 2034, the 6.3 billion people in these economies will account for 40 per cent of private worldwide consumption compared to 31 per cent today, a trend that is good for their economies and for growth in air travel.
"Regional and domestic routes are also growing with our single aisle products. Emerging economies with growing aspirational middle classes will continue to be a strong catalyst for air traffic growth," Leahy said.
In the next 20 years (2015-2034), according to Airbus' Global Market Forecast, global passenger traffic will grow at an average 4.6 per cent a year, driving a need for some 32,600 new aircraft (31,800 passenger sized 100 seats and above and 800 freighters) worth $4.7 trillion. By 2034, passenger and freighter fleets will more than double from today's 19,000 aircraft to 38,500. Some 13,100 less fuel efficient passenger and freighter aircraft will be retired.
Average aircraft size has grown by 40 per cent since the 1980s with airlines up-sizing to make more efficiently use of slots particularly at airports where adding frequency is difficult. A focus on sustainable growth has enabled fuel burn and noise reductions of at least 70 per cent in the last 40 years and this trend continues with innovations like the A320neo, the A330neo, the A380 and the A350 XWB.
- abdulbasit@khaleejtimes.com