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Saudis await vision of future with hope

Riyadh - Announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 due on Monday

Saudi Arabians are anticipating with hope the release this week of a government plan to diversify the economy of the Kingdom instead of only relying on oil.
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is to announce on Monday his "Saudi Vision 2030", which is expected to set goals for the next 15 years and a broad policy agenda to reach them, official sources say.
Economic details of the vision, a package of state budget reforms, regulatory changes and policy initiatives for the next five years known as the "National Transformation Plan", are expected to be released four to six weeks later.
Reform drives have come and gone in Saudi Arabia several times in the past few decades with only modest results. The Kingdom remains dependent on oil exports and low global prices created a state budget deficit of nearly $100 billion in 2015, emphasising the need for change.
Hundreds of thousands of Saudis are speculating in newspapers, on television, in social media and in private conversations about the contents of Monday's announcement.
Many, particularly young people, say they welcome change, believing it will bring jobs, new economic opportunities and eventually perhaps more social freedom - conceivably, for example, the right for women to drive.
Others doubt much change can be achieved in the Kingdom's conservative society, or worry that the programme will be painful as welfare benefits are cut to protect state finances and the government pushes more Saudis into the private sector jobs instead of cushy public employment.
The government's official Twitter account for the announcement, @SaudiVision2030, has gained 226,000 followers since it was launched last Wednesday.
Saudi economist Abdulhamid Al Amri said on Twitter that he had been hoping for such a comprehensive vision for over 10 years - a delay he believes has cost Saudi Arabia the equivalent of hundreds of billions of dollars.
"The absence of such a vision led to the waste of trillions of riyals, the spread of monopolies, corruption, unemployment, poverty and the delay of development projects," he wrote.
But he added, "Laying out a vision is the first step on a road of a million miles - the implementation remains."
Reforms
Many of the broad outlines of Vision 2030 are already known; they include an efficiency campaign within the government, a bigger role for the non-oil private sector, and more aggressive management of the Kingdom's foreign assets to increase returns.
Given the modest impact of the past reform drives, financial markets have moved little before the Vision 2030 announcement.
Late King Abdullah was widely seen as a reformer when he ascended the throne in 2005. He developed an investment promotion agency, began a big scholarship scheme for Saudis to study abroad and let women vote in municipal elections for the first time.
"The first quick win will be the efficiency and cooperation," said Prince Mansour Al Saud, senior planning manager at the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, who participated in workshops to discuss the reforms.
"Everybody will sense improvement in every single aspect of government work, in education and healthcare services."
"There will be a need for a restructuring process inside each ministry to meet programme requirements. Workshops over a few months will not wipe off five decades of bureaucracy," said Saudi economist Fadl Al Boainain.
Many Saudis also fear the reforms will hit their wallets, as the government cuts price subsidies for fuel and utilities, and wage rises in the public sector slow.
On Saturday, King Salman replaced minister for water and electricity Abdullah Al-Husayen, who had drawn public criticism for his handling of water price increases in December.
Prince Mohammed told Bloomberg last week that "we believe women have rights in Islam that they've yet to obtain". Increasing women's participation in the economy is a declared goal of the reforms.