China’s exports gain steam but outlook cloudy as global growth cools

China’s export growth unexpectedly picked up speed in July, offering an encouraging boost to the economy as its struggles to recover from a Covid-induced slump, but weakening global demand could start to drag on shipments in coming months.

Exports rose 18 per cent in July from a year earlier, the fastest pace this year, official customs data showed on Sunday, compared with a 17.9 per cent increase in June and beating analysts’ expectations for a 15 per cent gain.

Outbound shipments have been one of the few bright spots for the Chinese economy in 2022, as widespread lockdowns hit businesses and consumers hard and the once mighty property market lurches from crisis to crisis.

“China’s export growth surprised again on the upside. (It) continues to help China’s economy in a difficult year as domestic demand remains sluggish,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

However, many analysts have expected exports to fade as the global economy looks increasingly likely to be heading into a serious slowdown, weighed down by soaring prices and rising interest rates.

A global factory survey released last week showed demand weakened in July, with orders and output indexes falling to their weakest levels since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020.

China’s official manufacturing survey indicated activity contracted last month, raising fears that the economy’s recovery from lockdowns in spring will be slower and bumpier than expected.

But there were signs that transport and supply chain disruptions caused by Covid restrictions were continuing to ease, just in time for shippers preparing for peak year-end shopping demand.

Foreign trade container throughput at eight major Chinese ports rose 14.5 per cent in July, speeding up from the 8.4 per cent gain in June, according to data released by the domestic port association.

Container throughput at Covid-hit Shanghai port hit a record high last month.

July exports may also have been buoyed by pent-up demand from Southeast Asia as supply snarls eased and factories there ramped up production, Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research at Jones Lang Lasalle Inc, said in a research note.

Moreover, amid negative real interest rate and surging inflation, some European and US customers may have frontloaded orders to ensure they had goods on hand with lower costs, he added.

Still, while export growth remained high, mainly backed by price factors, the volume of exported goods dropped in July, said Chang Ran, a senior analyst at Zhixin Investment Research Institute.

“Looking ahead in the second half of the year, exports are expected to be resilient in the short run, but weakening external demand may pressure them in the fourth quarter,” Chang said.

Chinese exporters are facing mounting headwinds, one company executive told Reuters.

“I am very worried about the impacts of soaring US inflation and rising China-US tensions on our export orders,” Jin Chaofeng, general manager at Nicesoul, one of Amazon’s top rattan outdoor furniture sellers, told Reuters.

“If retaliatory tariffs like those in the Trump-era happened again, it would deal a blow to our businesses,” Jin said, adding the exports value of his company jumped 70-80 per cent in July year-on-year.

The International Monetary Fund in late July sharply cut its 2022 growth forecast for China to 3.3 per cent from 4.4 per cent in April, citing Covid lockdowns and the worsening crisis in the country’s property sector. — Reuters