Dubai home sales set to recover in early 2017

Given the weak sentiment, most expatriates in Dubai are likely to continue renting homes rather than switching to ownership.

dubai - Rents are close to bottoming out in the Dubai residential market, says JLL

Deepthi Nair

Published: Mon 18 Jul 2016, 1:10 PM

Last updated: Mon 18 Jul 2016, 3:16 PM

Britain's vote to exit the European Union, or Brexit, is likely to impact investor sentiment in the Dubai property market in the second half of the year, according to investment and advisory firm JLL. This is because British nationals are the third largest investors in the city's real estate, as per data from the Dubai Land Department.

Given the weak sentiment, most expatriates are likely to continue renting homes rather than switching to ownership. Therefore, the sales sector is likely to be impacted. However, JLL foresees a recovery in the Dubai residential market in early 2017.

Craig Plumb, head of research, JLL Mena, said: "Even though it is too early to predict the long-term implications, overall there is a slight probability of British investors being negatively impacted by the devaluation of the British pound following Brexit. However, we believe the effect of the decision will have temporary repercussions as a substantial number of British investors who work and reside in the UAE avoid sourcing their income in sterling."

Both the office and residential segments of the Dubai market are positioned close to the bottom of the property cycle, suggesting that rents have bottomed out (office) or are close to the trough (residential).

Home rents and sales prices remained largely unchanged over Q2, having softened by about 15 per cent since the market's peak in mid-2014.

In terms of residential supply delivered in Dubai in Q2, around 1,500 villas for staff of Emirates airline were delivered in District 11 of Mohammed bin Rashid City, marking the first project to be delivered in this development. A further 1,680 units were added across Dubai, including both apartments and villas, taking the total stock to 462,000 units.

Office sector
In Q2, vacancy rates dipped in commercial towers in the Central Business District (CBD). CBD office towers command relatively high rents, currently averaging at around Dh1,922 per sq m.

Dubai Design District (d3) is becoming a desirable destination. Asking rents in d3 increased by approximately 40 per cent over Q2 as the landlord (Tecom) attracted the headquarters of top retail names such as Chalhoub Group.

However, other commercial landlords are not so lucky as they are forced to offer incentives to retain existing and attract new tenants. These include flexible lease terms, rent-free periods and contributions to fit-out costs.

Only one office tower, Cayman Estates in Business Bay, was handed over in Q2. It added 30,000 sq m of office GLA (gross leasable area), taking the total stock to 8.5 million sq m.

JLL has revised downwards its future office supply levels for 2017/2018 as projects scheduled for completion in 2017 have been delayed to 2018 and the handover of ICD Brookfield has been confirmed for Q1 2019.

Retail
Three new shopping malls were added in Q2 - a community centre in International City, Ibn Battuta Mall phase II and The Ribbon in Motor City, collectively adding almost 30,000 sq m of GLA. The remainder of 2016 is expected to witness the delivery of further 150,000 sq m.

The Dubai retail market is currently at the top of the cycle, suggesting that rents may continue dropping for the rest of 2016.

The performance of retailers is correlated to tourist' spending patterns. With the British pound devaluation, Dubai and the Mena have become a more expensive destination for European tourists.

Hotels
Q2 saw the opening of the W Al Habtoor on the banks of the Dubai Water Canal, following St Regis in November 2015. Paired with other additions such as the Rove Hotel Downtown and Wyndham Marina, it brought the Dubai supply to around 72,500 rooms.

JLL estimates that several properties announced for 2016 may postpone their opening to 2017.

While occupancy rates remained flat compared to May 2015, average daily rates declined 13 per cent to $217, which can be attributed to increased competition in the market and the dollar's continuing strength.

Currency fluctuations in the euro and the pound have created challenging conditions for luxury brands and increased demand for the mid-market segment. More operators and owners are now investing in mid-scale properties. This is likely to enhance Dubai's attraction to fast-growing source markets in China and the Far East.

- deepthi@khaleejtimes.com