Dubai to lead GCC’s retail spending surge to $300b by 2028

Dubai ranks second only to New York City in terms of consumer expenditure

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A shopping mall in Dubai. Dubai stands out as the only GCC city among the six top global retail destinations. — File photo

Published: Thu 15 Aug 2024, 8:06 PM

Retail spending in the GCC is expected to rise by 37 per cent from 2022, reaching $300 billion by 2028 with cities in the region emerging as top global shopping destinations led by global shopping hub Dubai.

Dubai stands out as the only GCC city among the six top global retail destinations, including London, Milan, New York, Seoul, and Tokyo that have significant direct retail spending per capita ranging from $8,000 to $18,000 annually. The retail sectors of these cities also contribute as much as 24 per cent to urban GDP and employ up to 20 per cent of the urban workforce. In addition, they bolster the overall reputation of their cities, according to a report titled “Shopping for growth: how to build an urban retail destination” issued by Strategy& Middle East, part of the PwC network.

With a retail spend per capita of around $14,000, Dubai ranks second only to New York City in terms of consumer expenditure. Approximately 21 per cent of Dubai’s workforce is employed in the retail sector, the highest proportion among the six leading cities. This sector also contributes a remarkable 24 per cent to the city’s urban GDP.

“We see major cities in the GCC region pursuing urban transformation and expansion with mega-projects, diversifying economies with the aim of achieving growth,” Ramy Sfeir, partner at Strategy&, and the leader of the family business, investments, and real estate practice in the Middle East, said.

In 2021, retail sales in UAE were estimated at around $74 billion. In 2026, the volume of retail sales is forecasted to reach approximately $114 billion.

The Middle East retail market size is projected to exhibit a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.21 per cent during 2024-2032. The increasing prevalence of changing demographics, including population growth, aging populations, and cultural shifts, which impact consumer preferences and buying patterns, is primarily driving the market.

“As the GCC member states pursue urban transformation and mega projects, they should seize the unrealized opportunity for growth in the retail sectors of their major cities. The region’s annual retail sales are expected to grow to $300 billion by 2028, a 37 per cent increase from 2022. With the right steps, these retail sectors can become global shopping destinations,” said the report.

This transformation will allow retail to make a significant contribution to urban GDP and employment, while improving quality of life for residents and enhancing the offering to tourists. “The prospect of strong domestic retail growth, however, does not guarantee that GCC cities will become global shopping destinations. Indeed, the opposite could occur. Given the ease of foreign travel, rising GCC domestic demand could result in GCC shoppers seeking unique retail experiences outside the region,” said the report.

The UAE supermarket retail sector has seen significant growth and transformation over the past few years. In 2023, the retail market was worth $30.17 billion, with a projected CAGR of 6.2 per cent through 2029, retail industry analysts said.

In 2024, the retail market continues to thrive, driven by the rapid urbanisation, an expanding expatriate population, and the increasing demand for convenience. The market, encompassing hypermarkets, supermarkets, and online grocery platforms, has become a cornerstone of the UAE’s retail landscape. With ongoing investments in retail infrastructure and the adoption of digital technologies, the future of supermarkets in Dubai and the wider UAE looks promising.

In terms of market share, hypermarkets and supermarkets dominate the retail sector, accounting for approximately 85 per cent of total consumer spending. E-commerce, while growing rapidly, still represents about 15 per cent of the market but is the primary driver of recent growth.