Oil edges lower on IEA surplus forecast

Oil prices were down more than 1 per cent on Thursday as a forecast for ample supply in the oil market offset optimism stemming from growing expectations of a US interest rate cut.

Brent crude futures were down 96 cents, or 1.31 per cent, at $72.56 a barrel by 11:30 a.m. EST (1630 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $1.05, or 1.49 per cent, at $69.24.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expected the oil market to be comfortably supplied next year, even as it made a slight upward revision to its demand outlook for next. Opec cut its demand growth forecast for 2024 for the fifth straight month on Wednesday and by the largest amount yet.

“They (the IEA) still call for a massively oversupplied market, but this has declined slightly with their demand revision,” said UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

“The market is waiting for more news on fiscal measures around the world; I wouldn’t expect big price moves in the near term.”

Also putting pressure on prices, Iran agreed to tougher monitoring by the UN nuclear watchdog at its Fordow site dug into a mountain after it greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons grade there.

In the US, inflation rose slightly in November, in line with economists’ expectations. Investors are broadly expecting another rate cut from the Federal Reserve, spurring some optimism about economic growth and energy demand.