Foreign lenders lured by rare stake sales in India banks, but tighter rules weigh

Talks to sell majority stakes in two Indian banks have attracted interest from foreign peers in Japan and the Middle East betting on a fast-growing economy, but tighter regulations and valuation concerns could curb their appetite, analysts and sources say.

The rare opportunity for foreign banks to take controlling stakes in a market dominated by state-owned banks comes as existing investors in Yes Bank and IDBI Bank look to divest their holdings.

Banking sector deals in India, especially those involving foreign entities, are rare. A full takeover of troubled Indian lender Lakshmi Vilas Bank by Singapore-based DBS Group in a regulatory-driven transaction in 2020 was the last major deal.

The top shareholders are looking to exit from the two banks about four years after they were roped in by the regulator and the government to help them recover from sharply worsening asset quality due to rampant lending that threatened their stability.

Private sector lender Yes Bank, in which shareholders are looking to sell a 51 per cent stake, has drawn interest from Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (SMBC) and a bank from the Middle East.

IDBI Bank, in which the Indian government and the Life Insurance Corporation are collectively selling a 60.72 per cent stake, has seen a Middle East bank, Canada’s Fairfax Group, as well as local rival Kotak Mahindra Bank express interest.

The foreign interest in the two banks comes as the Indian economy is forecast to grow at 7.2 per cent this year, making it one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies.

Demand for bank credit, which includes corporate loans and mortgages, is growing at twice the expected economic growth pace and gross bad loans in the domestic banking sector are currently at multi-year lows of 2.8 per cent of total assets.

Similar to other major markets, inbound banking sector deals are tightly scrutinized in India. Given the sector’s importance and linkages with the broader economy, New Delhi is expected to field interest from bidders in countries it has good political ties with, analysts said.

“India’s growth story is promising, and corporates are looking to expand their businesses,” said Ashvin Parekh, managing director of Ashvin Parekh Advisory Services, which provides services to investors in banks. “That is enticing these (foreign) players,” Parekh said.

Despite those attractions, stricter rules related to capital requirements and ownership restrictions, and state domination with government-backed banks accounting for nearly 52 per cent of the bank credit have weighed on foreign banks’ operations in India.

Regulations in India also require that the largest shareholder of a local bank, termed as ‘promoter’ under Indian regulations, must their reduce shareholding to 26 per cent over a 15-year period.

Foreign lenders, including HSBC and Standard Chartered, accounted for only 3.4 per cent of the banking sector credit as of March 2024, less than half of the 8.4 per cent share they held in March 2000, according to the central bank data.

‘Fiercely competitive’

SMBC has been in advanced talks with Yes Bank and its lead investor State Bank of India over the past few weeks for the majority stake acquisition, said three sources with knowledge of the talks.

“The real problem, however, is that the Indian banking system is fiercely competitive,” said Parekh. “A foreign player would need a significant amount of branch network, distribution and franchise to be able to sustain in the banking system.”

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