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Jet business to top $472b in a decade

DUBAI — Some 7,259 commercial jet transports valued at $472.6 billion are expected to be built throughout the world in the 2005-2014 decade, predict Teal Group analysts in their annual commercial jet transport forecast released at the opening of the Paris Air Show.

This includes 5,264 single-aisle jet transports worth $207.3 billion and 1,995 twin-aisle airplanes worth $265.3 billion (all in 2005 US dollars). By comparison, over the last ten years, some 6,558 commercial jet transports worth $414.9 billion (again in 2005 dollars) were delivered. General overcapacity (airline system and equipment) is suppressing demand growth.

The new Teal forecast covers all Airbus and Boeing jets. This excludes the former Soviet jetliners, which together hold less than one percent of the market. So this new analysis provides a picture of almost all of the world market for civil jetliners larger than 100 seats.

Richard Aboulafia, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing, said : "The numbers look good, but not as good as the manufacturers project. The competitive intelligence service in which the new commercial jet transport forecast will soon be published. The low point of this cycle was 2004, which was not an especially bad year. We forecast some further growth through 2007, followed by a slight dip."