Copper buoyed by dollar, but China demand worry dominates

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.6% at $9,615

By Reuters

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A weaker dollar has triggered a flurry of copper buying by funds. — Reuters file

Published: Mon 1 Jul 2024, 4:15 PM

Copper prices firmed on Monday due to support from a weaker dollar and some stronger data from China's manufacturing sector, but worries about demand in the top consumer fuelled by climbing inventories capped gains.

Traders said the lower US currency, which makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for holders of other currencies and could boost demand, had triggered a flurry of copper buying by funds.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.6% at $9,615 a metric tonne at 1110 GMT. Prices of the metal used in power and construction have dropped more than 10% since hitting all-time highs of $11,100 in May.

"Funds are helping copper keep its head above water, but we need to see a sustained improvement in fundamentals for copper to recover towards recent peaks," a copper trader said.

Factory activity among smaller Chinese manufacturers grew at the fastest pace since 2021 thanks to overseas orders, a private survey showed. However, optimism was tempered by a broader survey suggesting weak domestic demand and industrial contraction.

Copper stocks in warehouses registered with the LME at 180,050 tonnes have climbed nearly 75% since May 16 and are at their highest since December.

Meanwhile, stocks in Shanghai's bonded warehouses at 90,700 tons are up from around 9,000 tons in January.

"We continue to expect price headwinds through...on continued demand weakness in China, notably from traditional end–use sectors such as construction. We expect to see further inventory builds in LME warehouses," BNP Paribas analyst David Wilson said.

"We continue to forecast the nickel price to trend lower through the second half of 2024, to end the year at $16,750/t, on increasing oversupply and ongoing nickel inventory builds."

LME nickel stocks at 95,436 tons have more than doubled since early November.

Nickel was up 0.1% at $17,315.

In other metals, aluminium gained 0.3% at $2,531, zinc added 0.9% to $2,962, lead climbed 0.1% at $2,227 and tin advanced 0.8% to $32,995.