The mystery and enigma of Switzerland

Switzerland has fascinated and baffled me my entire life. Why do chalets in Verbier and and Gstaad cost five times more than in, say, the French resort of St Gervais? Are people really willing to pay five times more for jet set, après-ski snobbery in the Swiss cantons? In any case, does climate change mean no snow in the Swiss Alps? Why does a visit to a supermarket on the Rue de Rhone feel like a bank heist while Chamonix or Ferney Voltaire in France are not trop cher? Why did Switzerland's oldest bank, Wegelin of St Gallen, whose partners I am proud to call friends, not survive 2008 but UBS and Credit Suisse are the pillars of the Helvetica Inc money changers temple? Why did the Swiss National Bank kill the world's top hedge funds, the gnomes of Mayfair and Greenwich, Conn with its shock abandonment of the ?1.20 ceiling peg?
Why did Ian Fleming, James Bond's creator depict Swiss bankers in such a sinister light when he himself was the scion of a Scots merchant banking clan that made a killing in colonial Hong Kong? Is it true that Adolf Hitler, Brezhnev, the Shah of Iran, Marcos, Kremlin oligarchs, Nigerian military dictators (notably Sani Abacha), the Indian subcontinent's political elite all stashed their looted billions in Swiss banks via numbered accounts? How much of Switzerland's $3 trillion in offshore wealth was looted from the planet's most corrupt and impoverished dark alleys? Is Lugano run from Milan, Bern or an anstalt in Lichtenstein? Why did the Swiss police raid the HSBC Private Bank in Geneva? Why did the German intelligence service pay millions of euros to a computer operator to acquire lists of secret account holders in a Swiss bank owned by the princes of Vaduz? Switzerland is definitely not just about skiing, yodeling, Heidi, Toblerone or the cuckoo clock.
Montreux on Lake Geneva is my favourite place in the Swiss Riviera, thanks to the ghost of Vladimir Nabokov and Graham Greene. The Jazz Festival made music history. Smoke over the water, fire in the night. The world knows Arab London (Edgeware Road and shish touk in Belgravia) but Arab Geneva is also a summer hub. The jet d'eau even reminds me of the Sharjah Corniche. Many Saudi family offices once based in Geneva are moving to DIFC. The luxury watch makers of the Jura are now all in Dubai Mall. Is it time for my Swissies to suntan in the Bernese Oberland?
The SNB has triggered a deflation shock in the Swiss economy. Euro-Swiss is now 1,09, making it difficult for Swiss industrial exporters or tourist hubs to compete in global markets. The jobless rate has risen to ten year highs. Exports to the EU and China have sagged. The Russian can no longer afford to party in the Orthodox Christmas break with their battalions of meanie bodyguards and six foot tall blonde secretaries.
I believe the Swiss franc is the most overvalued currency in the G10, though a safe haven in Wall Street risk aversion spasms. I was shocked to see cable car revenues fell 15 per cent this winter (no snow? No tourists?) This is a disaster for tourism dependent cantons. Unmoglich Quelle horreur. Mamma Mia! The SNB must act. The SNB will act - and short Swissie is my next big macro call.
The short Canada trade is now over. I would now buy the loonie at 1.45 for a strategic 1.38 target. Why? I expect Janet Yellen to do a policy U turn (in words at least) when she is grilled by her senatorial inquisitors during Humphrey Hawkins. Oil has popped every February since Desert Storm and will pop again if the stars are aligned, dear Brutus. The momentum/signals on the charts scream long loonie. Risk reversals, option skews, Chicago IMM futures data confirm. Ottawa will shift policy now that inflation is two per cent and Canadian exports to the US benefit from the J-curve. Evening stars. Stabler China and metals. My call? Canada will rise to 1.38 by March. First law of Nataknomics. No guts, no glory.