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Time to send money? UAE remittances to India, Philippines surge after Trump's win

The elections have had a profound impact on global financial markets, driving up the US dollar and leading to a sharp decline in several Asian currencies

Remittances from the UAE have risen as Asian currencies plummeted after Republican candidate Donald Trump decisively won the US national elections last week.

“We observed a surge in remittances to India and the Philippines,” said a representative from super app Botim. “We have seen a three per cent increase in the transaction numbers to India and around four per cent increase in Philippines peso transaction numbers for the first 12 days of November 2024 over the same period in October 24."

"Since the Nepalese rupee moves in tandem with the Indian rupee, USD/NPR reached an all-time high of 135.79 in November 2024. Additionally, we observed a 36 per cent increase in transaction numbers from September to October. Bangladesh transactions increased also by 32 per cent month on month as well," added the representative.

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On Monday, the Indian rupee weakened to its lowest level on record with likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) helping off a sharper decline.

"The recent US elections have had a profound impact on global financial markets, driving up the US dollar and leading to a sharp decline in several Asian currencies," said Adeeb Ahamed, Managing Director of LuLu Financial Holdings. "This shift has triggered an increase in remittance volumes particularly in the UAE, with customers taking advantage of favourable exchange rates to send money back home. Remittances from the UAE to India have risen, with increases observed in other corridors as well."

He explained that expats had responded positively to the market changes. “The ability to maximize the value of funds transferred to families and communities in their home countries underscores the critical role of efficient remittance services during such economic shifts," he said.

Meanwhile Ali Al Najjar, COO of Al Ansari Exchange, said it was too soon to predict trends accurately.

“Although the recent depreciation of the rupee, peso, and other Asian currencies is notable, it may be early to witness substantial shifts in remittance patterns,” he said. “Most Asian currencies have been trading lower. Additionally, the rising dollar index highlights broader market changes. With the UAE dirham being pegged to the dollar, this gives the UAE currency greater power, allowing residents to maximise their remittance value in comparison to other currencies that may fluctuate.”

However, he added that the exchange house expects an increase in remittances soon. “With the holiday season approaching, we anticipate a remittance increase of around five per cent in the coming months, as expatriates may look to take advantage of favourable exchange rates and send remittances back home to their families,” he said.

“It is important to note that given the prevailing market volatility, many individuals remain cautious, potentially delaying remittances until conditions stabilise.”

Remit or hold?

However, according to experts, it may not be just yet time to remit. “All in all, the election of Donald Trump significantly strengthened the bullish tale in the dollar, which has already priced in large perceived changes in the expected path of the US fiscal-monetary policy mix and the looming tariff issues,” said Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer, Century Financial. “As 2025 approaches, the dollar seems to continue riding a confirmed bullish trend. So, it would be better to wait a while before remitting.”

His comments were supported by Naveed Ali, Director of finance at Zand Digital Bank. "The USD is likely to remain strong in the short term. Given the Federal Reserve's high interest rates and economic conditions in the US, this will potentially keep pressure on currencies like rupees, pesos and other currencies. Hold if you are willing to wait for better rates and can tolerate the risk of further depreciation.”

Market outlook

According to Naveed, the short-term outlook for several currencies including the rupees and pesos will depend on multiple factors. “These include but are not limited to global economic trends, regional dynamics, and domestic factors such as inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and geopolitical risks. In short, a strong US dollar will continue to intensify pressure on the value of rupee, peso and other free-floating Middle Eastern currencies.”

Vijay explained how the global market is developing now. “The aftershocks from the Trump earthquake are more obvious now,” he said. "The dollar rose further on Tuesday, to its highest since it jumped against the Euro after the threat of customs duties promised by Donald Trump. More currencies could be more affected by the entry into force of Trump's new customs tariffs, especially the Chinese yuan. The US president-elect wants to raise import taxes to 20 per cent for products entering the country, even those from the European Union, and has promised to hike it up as high as 60 per cent for imports coming from China.”

He added that the UAE dirham would benefit greatly under the leadership of Trump as the AED is pegged to the USD.

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