UAE: Why gold prices are expected to rise further in coming months

The yellow metal closed at $2,503.34 per ounce over the weekend and rose above $2,525 earlier in the week

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Published: Mon 2 Sep 2024, 6:00 AM

Last updated: Mon 2 Sep 2024, 9:55 PM

Gold rally is expected to continue after gaining nearly 21 per cent this year so far as predictions are growing that the yellow metal price will reach $3,000 per ounce in the medium term.

The precious metal has rallied this year mainly on the expectations of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time in many years, US dollar weakness, and geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

Going forward, analysts foresee falling interest rates, geopolitical tension and expectations of a rise in demand from central banks that will lift prices of the yellow metal.

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“Gold is in the advancing cycle and so far it rallied 23 per cent after breaking out in late February 2024. In 2019, gold formed a similar breakout and rallied 50 per cent within 14 months. So present rally has a lot of room with my minimum target of $3,000 per ounce,” said Rashad Hajiyev, founder of RM Capital Consulting.

The yellow metal closed at $2,503.34 per ounce over the weekend. It rose above $2,525 earlier in the week.

In Dubai, 24K, 22K, 21K and 18K were trading at Dh303.25, Dh280.75, Dh271.75 and Dh233 per gram, respectively.

Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at the FxPro, said gold hit a glass ceiling at $2,525 an ounce on the spot market on Friday, which it has been battling against for the past two weeks. A series of smaller and smaller pullbacks and more frequent rallies to the resistance indicate impressive buying pressure.

"Under these conditions, we should expect a breakout to the historical highs soon, but it will be important to watch how the price behaves afterwards,” said Kuptsikevich.

Over the past two weeks, he said, a triangle of horizontal resistance and rising support has formed on the gold chart which is a clear indication that buyers are taking the initiative at increasingly higher levels. “The same conclusion can be drawn if we look at the longer-term chart period since April when the trend of increasingly shallow corrections continued. The current consolidation is an oscillation around the upper boundary of the uptrend since then.”

He elaborated that in the daily timeframe, there is a sign of upward exhaustion. “However, we saw a similar situation from October 2023 to February 2024, which was followed by a strong uptrend rather than a short-term uptrend.”

Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, has also forecasted that the yellow metal could potentially target a range of $2,700-$3,000 in months ahead, which will translate to Dh330-Dh365 per gram in the UAE.

Mazen Salhab, chief market strategist for Mena at BDSwiss, said recent data revealed a slight decrease in US weekly jobless claims, which could play in favour of gold.

“However, the US GDP growth for the second quarter was revised up to 3 per cent, indicating a stable economy. This revision has supported the US dollar and treasury yields, slightly capping gold’s potential for further gains.”

Additionally, Salhab projected that ongoing geopolitical risks and robust demand from China continue to support gold.

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