Why precious metals are likely to continue their bullish trend

Over the past week, gold has surged to a new record past $2,740, marking a year-on-year increase of nearly 40 per cent. Silver, following a significant breakout on Friday when it closed above previous resistance at $32.50, has jumped to a 50 per cent year-on-year gain.

While this recent rally has exceeded expectations, several factors continue to support the upward trend despite emerging challenges.

“Key drivers of this bullish phase include concerns over fiscal instability, safe-haven demand, geopolitical tensions, de-dollarisation driving strong demand from central banks, and uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election. Additionally, rate cuts—by the Fed and other central banks—are reducing the cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold and silver. This environment is already spurring renewed interest in gold-backed ETFs, particularly from Western asset managers who were net sellers until May 2024,” Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note.

Rate cut expectations, as seen through the SOFR futures market, have seen hopes for another 50 basis points cut, followed by a total of 50 basis points at the following two meetings, cut in half so far.

Gold’s attractiveness as an alternative non-yielding investment tends to depend on the prevailing opportunity cost — that is, the alternative income an investor would earn through a short-term investment in secure government bonds. In the last month, reduced rate cut expectations have driven the return on a 12-month Treasury bill.

Gold has risen despite recent US dollar strength, which has been supported by Middle East haven flows and strong US economic data, driving flows into American risk assets.