Oil regains ground on political uncertainty in US, Mideast

The markets are underpinned by supply cuts from Opec+ with Iraq saying it will compensate for any overproduction since the beginning of 2024

By Reuters

Published: Mon 15 Jul 2024, 10:45 AM

Oil regained ground on Monday, with political uncertainty in the US and the Middle East supporting prices, offsetting downward pressure from a stronger dollar and weak demand in top importer China.

Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $85.18 a barrel by 0425 GMT after settling down 37 cents on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $82.41 a barrel, up 20 cents, or 0.2%.

Oil prices shrugged off the impact from the dollar, which firmed after a failed assassination bid on U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump.

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"I don't think you can ignore the uncertainty that the weekend's assassination attempt will cast across a deeply divided country in the lead-up to the election," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

In the Middle East, talks on ending the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas halted on Saturday after three days, though a Hamas official said the following day it had not withdrawn from discussions.

However, an Israeli attack targeting the group's military leader killed 90 people on Saturday.

The uncertainty around the volatile situation has kept the geopolitical premium in oil elevated.

Oil markets are also broadly underpinned by supply cuts from OPEC+ with Iraq's oil ministry saying it will compensate for any overproduction since the beginning of 2024.

Last week, Brent fell more than 1.7% after four weeks of gains while WTI futures slid 1.1% as a fall in China's crude imports, the world's top importer, countered robust summer consumption in the United States.

"While fundamentals are still supportive, there are growing demand concerns, largely emanating from China," ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said in a note.

China's crude oil imports fell 2.3% in the first half of this year to 11.05 million barrels a day, amid disappointing fuel demand and as independent refiners cut output due to weak profit margins.

Crude throughput at Chinese refineries fell 3.7% in June from a year earlier to 14.19 million bpd, the year's lowest so far, customs data showed on Monday.

China's economy slowed in the second quarter as a protracted property downturn and job insecurity weighed on domestic demand, keeping alive expectations Beijing will need to unleash more stimulus.

In the United States, active oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 478 last week, the lowest since December 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.