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Oil to sustain rally ahead of Opec+ meet on October 4

Producer group and allies unlikely to change current output policy

Published: Sun 1 Oct 2023, 4:02 PM

By
Issac John

Oil pumpjacks dot the landscape on oilfields on the outskirts of Taft, Kern County, California. — AFP

Oil prices are expected to sustain a rally near $100 per barrel this week, driven by tight supply coupled with resilient demand despite a sharp drop on Thursday.

The bullish market outlook is supported by expectations that Opec and allies led by Russia, known as Opec+, is unlikely to change its current oil output policy when a panel, known as the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, meets on Wednesday.

Oil market experts, however, pointed out that despite plenty of bullish catalysts, oil prices are meeting resistance every time they break above $95. They attribute the resistance to speculation that Saudi Arabia may unwind its production cuts earlier than expected.

Last week, oil prices stayed range-bound as crude remained overbought and any surge above $95 per barrel triggered resistance. With Opec+ meeting on October 4, focus will now move back to Saudi Arabia and the future of its production cuts, traders said.

The question, according to analysts, is what level of prices would be too high to sustain with limited supply. The rally is prompting some analysts to predict the potential for demand destruction. They argue that triple-digit prices are not sustainable in the short term, leading to a scenario of possible demand destruction where customers gradually answer persistently high prices with fewer purchases.

“Opec+ production cuts, including the voluntary extra cut by Saudi Arabia, are bearing fruit, lowering oil inventories and supporting prices,” UBS Strategist Giovanni Staunovo said in a note, pegging the bank’s oil price estimate at $90-100 per barrel over the coming months.

Oil prices soared to their highest level in over a year last Wednesday after crude stocks at a key storage hub fell to their lowest since July last year. Crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma fell to 22 million barrels in the fourth week of September — hovering close to the operational minimum — a drop of 943,000 barrels compared to the prior week.

Brent crude futures rose 63 cents per barrel from the Thursday settlement to $96.01 per barrel on Friday and sit well above prices observed in the first half of the year.

“We’re running out of oil — you can see how low storage is at Cushing,” Gary Ross, hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors, told Bloomberg. “If we’re running out at Cushing, then we’re running out in Europe, because it relies on US exports. If the US exports less, then where is Europe going to get its oil from?”

Meanwhile, Energy Aspects estimates that Russia has generated an extra $2.8 billion in oil revenue in the third quarter compared to the April through June period. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has likely pulled an extra $2.6 billion over that time frame, the equivalent of gaining an extra $30 million a day