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Opec bolstered by rivals’ crude supply shortfalls

LONDON - A surge in global oil consumption is slowing but supply shortfalls from rival producers such as Canada and Russia will bolster demand for the Opec group’s crude this winter, Opec said yesterday.

Opec’s monthly Oil Market Report forecast demand growth of 1.5 million barrels per day next year in the 82 million bpd world market. That is down from 2.5 million bpd this year, which saw the fastest rise since 1977.

“85 per cent of the increase in world oil demand came from North America, China and developing countries,” Opec said.

“Given that the economies of these regions are expected to see lower growth rates, the demand for 2005 is expected to slow to a still respectable increase,” it added.

Even so, lower-than-expected non-Opec supply meant that Opec raised its estimate of demand for the group’s own oil by 470,000 bpd to 28.78 million bpd for the fourth quarter this year.

The first quarter 2005 ’call’ on Opec oil was raised by 200,000 bpd to 28.34 million bpd. Technical problems in synthetic crude production from Canada and lower-than-expected supply from Russia pushed down Opec’s forecast of non-Opec supply by 500,000 barrels per day to 50.29 md over the current quarter, the report said.