Pent up demand, vaccine to spur UAE retail sales to $58 billion in 2021

Driven by pent up consumer demand and recovery from the pandemic, retail sector in the UAE is expected to rebound and grow by 13 per cent with sales reaching $58 billion by the end of 2021, Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry said in a forecast.

The chamber analysis has taken into consideration, apart from a revival in consumer demand, the headway made in Covid-19 vaccination efforts and the opportunities of Expo 2020 Dubai.

The analysis, based on recent data from Euromonitor, predicted that UAE retail sales are forecast to maintain 6.6 per cent annual growth in the medium term to reach $70.5 billion by 2025, with store-based retailing growth forecast at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7 per cent, while non-store retailing is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 14.8 per cent.

According to market reports site Reportlinker.com, the UAE retail market that was valued at $55 billion in 2019, is projected to grow to $ 75 billion by 2025 due to various factors such as rising per capita income, growing tourism industry, increasing expatriate population and rising number of upcoming development projects in the country such as Deira Mall (Dubai), Al Maiyah Central (Abu Dhabi), Cityland Village (Dubai), Tilal Mall (Sharjah), Reem Mall (Abu Dhabi), among others. Also, major events such as the Dubai World Expo 2020, in addition to other new attractions will further boost the tourism, transportation, and manufacturing industries in the country.

GlobalData retail analysis said although Covid-19 might have wiped Dh 13.5 billion off the original 2020 forecast growth of 5.8 per cent in the UAE, its wealthy population and brief lockdown period will mean the market holds up better than many of its Mena neighbours.

Another factor supporting the retail sector bounce back is a relatively faster recovery the UAE is experiencing compared to most Western economies due to consumers’ greater propensity to spend on luxury items.

Across the globe, the retail industry, currently valued at $25 trillion, will never be the same again, even with the availability of the Covid-19 vaccine, according to pundits. While vaccines might bring back normalcy in life, the retail sector will continue to evolve, due to a technology-led disruption where data analytics, artificial intelligence, machine learning, perceptive analytics, and changing consumer behaviour will reshape the retail industry landscape to strengthen customer experience.

— issacjohn@khaleejtimes.com