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Will Dubai rents drop in 2025 as city gets 100,000 new villas, apartments?

The total supply introduced across Dubai has increased to 106,700 units compared to 76,000 new unit launched between January to September in 2023

Dubai is expected to see over 100,000 new apartments and villas coming onto the market over the next 15 months, which will substantially help ease the pressure and rein prices and rentals in the emirate.

“More than 21,300 units have been handed over across the city till September. There are an additional 110,000 units due for completion by the end of 2025,” according to Emirates NBD Research and Reidin data released on Tuesday.

The report issued by the Emirates NBD Research about the Dubai property market for the month of September showed 21,300 units being handed over during the January-September 2024 period and another 25,000 units are under construction. It is estimated that 75,940 will be delivered across different areas of the emirate in 2025.

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Dubai needs a strong new supply to meet the growing demand from property buyers and rentals as population continues to grow. The influx of professionals and investors is resulting in a spike in demand for new units, pushing rentals and prices to an all-time record high in the emirate. This new strong supply will bring stability in prices and reduce the rentals rate in the emirate.

Swapnil Pillai, director for real estate research at Emirates NBD Research, said September showed no signs of slowdown as more than 16,800 residential units were transacted across the city, setting a new monthly record. The total number of properties sold across the city during January-September has surpassed 121,100 units, up by 31 per cent year-on-year.

“The sustained and significant expansion in the residential market is evident in the transaction numbers. In 2019, the city saw a total of 23,661 transactions while in Q3 2024 alone, more than 32,700 units were sold. In fact, in 2024, an average of 27,000 units were sold quarterly, higher than the 16,200 quarterly transactions in 2023,” he said.

Farooq Syed, CEO of Springfield Properties, said Dubai is consistently demonstrating its strength as a real estate global hub.

“This quarter has been one of the most dynamic periods we’ve seen in the past year, with substantial year-on-year growth in both transaction values and volumes. The off-plan market continues to lead the charge, with investors eager to secure future-ready assets that offer long-term value,” he said.

Syed added: “Luxury properties remain a magnet for high-net-worth individuals, with communities like Palm Jumeirah and Dubai Hills Estate drawing global attention. We’re seeing not just investment in property, but in lifestyle – buyers are choosing Dubai for its world-class amenities, safety, and strategic location.”

Off-plan market share growing

Off-plan properties in Dubai grew their market share, accounting for 72 per cent of the total demand in September and continues to outpace demand for completed or ready projects. The share for off-plan units in the emirate has gone up from 62 per cent in January. In September, more than 12,100 off-plan units were sold, setting a record for Dubai.

Meanwhile, throughout the year, the demand for completed and ready units has remained stable. On average this year, 4,400 ready property units were transacted monthly across Dubai and this number has marginally increased to 4,700 transactions in September.

Total sales in September were valued at Dh38.12 billion, up from Dh37.32 billion in August, while the total value of units sold across Dubai so far has touched Dh303.45 billion, up 22 per cent year-on-year.

In Q3, an additional 25,300 units were launched across Dubai. With the new set of launches, the total supply introduced across Dubai has increased to 106,700 units compared to 76,000 new unit launched between January to September in 2023. “If new project launches continue at the same pace, the city might see a total of 135,000 new unit launches for the entire year,” said Swapnil Pillai in the note.

“Dubai’s real estate market is on track for sustained growth, supported by strategic infrastructure projects and increasing demand from high-net-worth individuals. The market’s appeal lies in its business-friendly environment and robust development pipeline, making it a preferred choice for global investors. The outlook remains positive as we approach the final quarter of 2024,” Syed agreed.

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