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UAE-India trade may touch $100 billion by 2020

Dubai - As India is forecast to become the UAE's top import and export destination by 2020, policy changes are expected from both sides that would have a positive impact on trade relations.

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Trade between the UAE and India could be valued around $100 billion in the next five years, given the target of 60 per cent growth by 2020. Currently, bilateral trade is worth $60 billion.

Trade between the two countries is expected to rebound in 2016 and 2017 despite declines in trade values in the last two years, according to Marmore Mena Intelligence, a research firm.

Trade had peaked to $74.45 billion in 2012-13, was stagnant at $59.54 billion in 2013-14 and $59.61 billion in 2014-2015.

The research firm said the visit of Indian prime minister Narendra Modi to the UAE and signing of agreements related to strengthening trade as well cultural and defence ties may have a positive impact on bilateral trade between the UAE and India.

India-UAE trade (value in $ mn, year ending March)
Particulars	2010-2011	2011-2012	2012-2013	2013-2014	2014-2015
India's Exports to UAE	33,822.39	35,925.52	36,316.65	30,520.42	30,497.93
%Change	41.1	6.22	1.09	-15.96	-16.02
India's Imports from UAE	32,753.16	36,756.32	39,138.36	29,019.82	29,114.18
%Change	67.97	12.22	6.48	-25.85	-25.61
Total Trade	66,575.55	72,681.84	74,455.01	59,540.24	59,612.11
%Change	53.15	9.17	3.82	-21	-21
Source: Ministry of Commerce, India

As India is forecast to become the UAE's top import and export destination by 2020, policy changes are expected from both sides that would have a positive impact on trade relations. Both countries have targeted to increase exports by 60 per cent in the next five years by making facilities for infrastructure and using their geographic locations to increase trade.

India was the UAE's largest trading partner in 2013, after which both imports and exports declined, mainly due to a reduction in demand for jewellery and precious stones in India and diversification of the UAE's imports.

The November 2015 report by India's ministry of finance, department of economic affairs, economic division, states that merchandise exports and imports declined by 24.4 per cent and 30.3 per cent, respectively, in November 2015 over November 2014. During April-November 2015, merchandise exports and imports declined by 18.5 per cent and 17.2 per cent, respectively.

The growth rate of GDP was at constant (2011-12) market prices for the second quarter (Q2) (July-September) of 2015-16 is estimated at 7.4 per cent as compared to the growth of 7.0 per cent in Q1 of 2015-16. Growth in the first half (H1) of 2015-16 works out to 7.2 per cent.

Overall growth in the Index of Industrial Production, or IIP was 9.8 per cent in October 2015 as compared to (-)2.7 per cent in October 2014. On a cumulative basis, the IIP growth was 4.8 per cent for the period April-October 2015-16 as compared to the growth of 2.2 per cent during the same period of the previous year. Manufacturing sector grew by 10.6 per cent in October 2015 and 5.1 per cent in April-October 2015. Eight core infrastructure industries grew by 3.2 per cent in October 2015 as compared to growth of nine per cent in October 2014. The cumulative growth of core industries during April-October 2015-16 was 2.5 per cent as compared to growth of 5.6 per cent during April-October 2014-15.

sandhya@khaleejtimes.com