Modi's party now targets India's south and east

Within hours of the March 11^th victory in Uttar Pradesh, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Amit Shah was contemplating his next moves. As he told his close associates, he wants the party to gain strength in 120 Lok Sabha constituencies across various states where the BJP is a marginal player. A few days later, while speculation was still rife about who would or wouldn't be the next chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, Bhupendra Yadav, general secretary of the party, confirmed to me that the new pastures for the party would include Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, West Bengal and several states in the Northeast. "Certainly, on the list of our new targets are Andhra Pradesh and Telangana," he averred, emphasising that a "lot of work" is being done in these turfs by the party, which, either on its own or with allies, currently rules 17 states that are collectively home to two-thirds of the country's 1.25 billion people.
True, such talk of expanding in the south and ridding itself of the image of being a cow-belt party has been in the air for long. When M Venkaiah Naidu was BJP president, it was a top priority. He never tired of dwelling on the subject and pointing to triggers for the BJP's likely rapid growth in these areas. Yet, it has not been able to forge ahead in the south, except in Karnataka. Even here, the BJP, which first made a mark in the 1983 elections, cornering 7.9 per cent of all votes polled and winning 18 seats, had to wait for nearly 25 years before it could form a government in Bengaluru. Among other reasons, its progress was slowed by successful bids made by other parties to keep it at bay, recalcitrant allies that broke promises of a power-sharing formula, and internecine wrangling in the state unit. Though it was the single-largest party in the 2004 Assembly polls, it was only in 2008 that the party, which secured 110 seats, managed to get the backing of six independents to form a government in the 224-member House.
As of now, BJP insiders confide, West Bengal is top on their agenda. They would cash in on the perception that the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress government has consistently resorted to Muslim appeasement, a charge she has vehemently denied. For her part, she has countered charges that radicalised terror groups have made Bengal their home, making their way in from across the porous Bangladesh border. Banerjee had called this a canard and a figment of the imagination of federal investigating agencies. However, NIA sources tell Open that the state government has been acting in connivance with illegal immigrants. The political explanations are many: pundits say that following in the footsteps of the CPM, which had encouraged mass migration to strengthen its vote bank, the Trinamool Congress is also falling back on similar tactics to fight off its political opposition.
The BJP, which of late has made its presence felt in the state, thinks differently. It feels that if illegal migration could drastically alter the politics of neighbouring Assam in its favour, it should work in Bengal as well. In Assam, which saw riots in 2012 between Bangladeshi-origin residents and northeasterners, the BJP was able to ride to power last year under the stewardship of Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma, who, upset with Rahul Gandhi's style of working, had left the Congress for the BJP in 2015.
The BJP may be upbeat about doing an Assam in West Bengal, but analysts who have closely watched the state's electoral dynamics are less optimistic. In a state that has displayed massive inertia in political matters, the BJP has a long way to go in Bengal, says London School of Economics Professor Sumantra Bose. He feels that the Sangh Parivar's presence in the state is still limited to RSS networks, which is not sufficient for mass electoral appeal. "In Bengal, the BJP is deficient on three crucial measures: organisation, leadership, strategy." His contention is that the Trinamool Congress, on the other hand, is very well entrenched and its leader remains widely popular.
In the Northeast, the BJP is counting on the hard work it has silently done for a prolonged period. Even in Manipur, a difference to its fortunes was made by the individual efforts of people such as Sarma, BJP National General Secretary Ram Madhav, strategist Rajat Sethi and some RSS members. Dr V Bijukumar, associate professor, Centre for Political Studies, JNU, tracks the party's growth in the state. The BJP's victory was largely due to its strategy of focusing special attention on ethnic groups such as Meiteis, Nagas and Kukis. "While it held a dominant position in the Meitei-dominated Valley, it also gained a strong presence in Congress strongholds, even Kuki-dominated areas. Kukis traditionally support the Congress. The BJP was able to create a division within Kuki extremist organisations," he says. "While the Kuki National Organisation extended its support to the Congress, the United People's Front, a conglomeration of Kuki extremist groups, supported the BJP," he elaborates, "The BJP managed to get [five] Kuki MLAs. The BJP [later roped in] the Naga People's Front, a political conglomeration of Nagas in Manipur. The BJP was able to win [some] support of Nagas by citing the Naga Peace Accord of 2015, though the provisions of the accord are yet to be disclosed."
Certainly, Shah has enough cause for cheer after winning Assam in 2016 and forming a government in Manipur by superseding the single largest party there. Emboldened by this success, the BJP is looking at Meghalaya and Tripura, where it plans alliances with regional parties for the polls next year.
Shah and his lieutenants, buoyed by gains in Odisha's local polls, are hoping to do well in Tamil Nadu and Kerala as well. In Kerala, the RSS and BJP have campaigned all along against what they call the minority-appeasing policies of the two warring coalitions, one led by the Congress and the other by the CPM.
The BJP central leadership is also enthusiastic about its prospects in Tamil Nadu's 2019 elections. In this state, it expects an alignment with one of the AIADMK groups to pay off. State leaders, though, sound less optimistic.
Strong views indeed. But again, whatever the pundits may say, the ruling party at the Centre is gung-ho about the upcoming polls in nascent turfs, having gained from its polarising tactics in the north. It also expects to use different tactics for different geographies to ensure a Congress-free India. "We will work very hard to make it happen," says Bhupendra Yadav. Like all such lofty goals, it's easier said than done.
The Open