Amid strikes, what will this year’s Oscar season look like?

Three years after the pandemic forced the majority of Oscar season to take place on Zoom, Hollywood may be facing another circumscribed awards circuit.

Dual strikes by SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild of America have already had a significant effect on this year’s movie calendar: Studios have opted to push several big theatrical releases such as Dune: Part Two to 2024, since SAG-AFTRA is prohibiting its members from promoting major-studio films amid the walkout. That same ban could radically reshape the Oscar season landscape, since awards shows and the media-blitz ecosystem built around them depend on star wattage to survive. (The strikes have already prompted the Emmys to move from September to January, and other ceremonies could be delayed, too.)

So, what will the season look like if the strikes continue into late fall or winter? Expect these four predictions to come to pass.

Streamers will be at a major advantage

The post-pandemic theatrical landscape is already difficult enough for prestige titles: Last year, best-picture nominees The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár and Women Talking all struggled to break out at the box office. Subtract the months of press that the stars of contending films are called upon to do, and the financial forecast for speciality films grows even more dire. If striking actors aren’t available to promote this season’s year-end titles, many studios will think twice about releasing them.

Streamers don’t have the same problem, since they worry more about clicks than box office numbers. So far, Netflix, Apple and Amazon have been proceeding full speed ahead with their awards-season slates: Although the actors in streaming films such as Nyad (with Annette Bening as long-distance swimmer Diana Nyad), Saltburn (a thriller about obsession) and Killers of the Flower Moon (a historical drama starring Leonardo DiCaprio) may not be free to do much press, there’s ultimately no more effective advertisement for a streamer than simply throwing big pictures of a movie star on the app’s homepage.

Directors are the new stars

The monthslong awards circuit can raise a filmmaker’s profile considerably: Near the end of their seasons, auteurs such as Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) and Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) were as recognizable as movie stars, and often just as mobbed at awards shows. Still, if the actors strike continues for several more months, studios will need to rely even more on their directors, since they may be the sole representatives of their films who are available for big profiles, audience Q&As and ceremonies.

Well-established auteurs such as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) will be at a particular advantage here, as will new-school academy favourites such as Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Emerald Fennell (Saltburn). The latter two have a significant side hustle as actors, which may prove appealing in a season that will lack thespian faces, although their fellow actor-turned-director Bradley Cooper will be in a bit of a bind: How can he promote Maestro, his forthcoming Leonard Bernstein movie, if he also stars in it?

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.