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From UAE to India, Pakistan: Is climate change to be blamed for rains, floods around the world?

Several factors contribute to erratic weather patterns that we observe today in the Emirates and elsewhere

Climate scientists have predicted that heavy rain and floods could become more common as the Earth heats up. But this alone is not the only factor for heavy rains in the UAE this summer, says a senior official from the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).

Dr Ahmed Habib from NCM on Monday told Khaleej Times that several factors contribute to the erratic weather patterns and unprecedented weather events that we observe today in the UAE and elsewhere in the world.

“We still have the chance of the formation of convective clouds and rain over the Eastern and Southern parts of the UAE in the month of August.”

Other countries like Oman, Pakistan, India, Kentucky, and Uganda have also witnessed heavy rains and untimely floods this year, damaging people’s houses and properties. Many people have also lost their lives to flooding in these countries.

He then explains, “We have low pressure coming from India with upper and surface air depression also extending from parts of Pakistan and Iran. The UAE has been experiencing the low-pressure effect especially in the Eastern part of the country.”

Habib points out that how European countries like Britain, Germany, France, Portugal, and Spain are witnessing extreme heat waves.

“Climate change is a big war. There are multiple factors, and everything is related to each other. This needs to be analysed closely. In Europe high temperatures have been recorded in several countries. This side, the UAE, Pakistan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia saw a lot of rains and floods.”

Shedding light on the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that appears as a band of clouds, usually thunderstorms, that encircle the globe near the Equator, Dr Habib says, “Inter tropical conversion zone, this year is shifting more towards the North. So, this has been coupled with low pressure in the North (extending from South to North).

"We also see the formation of a lot of convective clouds in north India and south of Pakistan and Iran and it extends into the UAE, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Qatar as well, leading to unstable weather conditions and heavy rain, leading to floods in some parts of Iran, Pakistan, Qatar and KSA.”

Touching upon the La Niña events when trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia, he says, “This year during winters we didn’t see much rain but in summer we are witnessing more rain. These things need to be studied carefully. Also, our area is under the La Lina effect. Some areas are dry and wet, some areas are hot, and some areas are cold. When La Lina changes, trade winds also change, shifting to North. South-westerly wind will also shift to North.”

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Therefore, he says it’s a phenomenon that changes the temperatures of surface waters and the state of the atmosphere, leading to severe weather conditions for many.

Meanwhile, the expected weather forecast on Tuesday suggests it’s going to be hot, fair to partly cloudy with clouds appearing Eastward by afternoon. Light to moderate Southeasterly to Northeasterly winds will be experienced with dust blowing during the daytime, with a speed of 15 – 25 reaching 40 km/hr.

On Wednesday, the weather will be hot, fair to partly cloudy and with clouds appearing Eastward by afternoon. Light to moderate Southeasterly to Northeasterly winds will be felt with a speed of 15 – 25 reaching 35 km/hr.