Ukraine rebels order troop mobilisation amid invasion fears

A separatist leader in eastern Ukraine ordered a full military mobilization Saturday, a move that comes amid a spike in violence in the war-torn region that the West fears could be used as a pretext for an invasion by neighbouring Russia.

Denis Pushilin, the head of the pro-Russian separatist government in the Donetsk region, released a statement Saturday announcing a full troop mobilization and urging reservists to show up at military enlistment offices.

The announcement came as a mass evacuation of women, children and the elderly from the rebel-held territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to neighboring Russia was underway.

U.S. President Joe Biden said Friday he was now “convinced” Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and assault the capital.

After weeks of saying the U.S. was not sure if Putin had made the final decision, Biden said that his judgment had changed, citing American intelligence.

“As of this moment, I’m convinced he’s made the decision,” Biden said. “We have reason to believe that.” He reiterated that the assault could occur in the “coming days.”

The president’s comments at the White House followed a day of rising violence that included a humanitarian convoy hit by shelling and a car bombing in the eastern city of Donetsk. Pro-Russian rebels began evacuating civilians from the conflict zone with an announcement that appeared to be part of Moscow’s efforts to paint Ukraine as the aggressor instead.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin announced massive nuclear drills to flex its military muscle, and Putin pledged to protect Russia’s national interests against what it sees as encroaching Western threats.

Biden reiterated his threat of crushing economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia if it does invade, and pressed Putin to reconsider. He said the U.S. and its Western allies were more united than ever to ensure Russia pays a steep price for any invasion.

As further indication that the Russians are preparing for a major military push, a U.S. defence official said an estimated 40% to 50% of the ground forces deployed in the vicinity of the Ukrainian border have moved into attack positions closer to the border. That shift has been underway for about a week, other officials have said, and does not necessarily mean Putin has decided to begin an invasion. The defence official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal U.S. military assessments.

The official also said the number of Russian ground units known as battalion tactical groups in the border area had grown to as many as 125, up from 83 two weeks ago. Each group has 750 to 1,000 soldiers.

Lines of communication remain open: The U.S. and Russian defence chiefs spoke Friday. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov agreed to meet next week.

Immediate worries focused on eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting pro-Russia rebels since 2014 in a conflict that has killed some 14,000 people. With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops now posted around Ukraine’s borders, the long-simmering separatist conflict could provide the spark for a broader attack.

Fears of such escalation intensified amid Friday’s violence. A bombing struck a car outside the main government building in the rebel-held city of Donetsk, according to an Associated Press journalist there. The head of the separatist forces, Denis Sinenkov, said the car was his, the Interfax news agency reported.

There were no reports of casualties and no independent confirmation of the circumstances of the blast. Shelling and shooting are common along the line that separates Ukrainian forces and the rebels, but targeted violence is unusual in rebel-held cities.

Adding to the tensions, two explosions shook the rebel-controlled city of Luhansk early Saturday. The Luhansk Information Center said one of the blasts was in a natural gas main and cited witnesses as saying the other was at a vehicle service station. There was no immediate word on injuries or a cause. Luhansk officials blamed a gas main explosion earlier in the week on sabotage.

Overall, monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe reported more than 600 explosions in the war-torn east of Ukraine on Friday.

Separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that form Ukraine’s industrial heartland known as the Donbas announced they were evacuating civilians to Russia.

Pushilin, the head of the Donetsk rebel government, said women, children and the elderly would go first, and that Russia has prepared facilities for them. Pushilin alleged in a video statement that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was going to order an imminent offensive in the area.

Metadata from two videos posted by the separatists announcing the evacuation show that the files were created two days ago, The Associated Press confirmed. U.S. authorities have alleged that the Kremlin’s disinformation campaign could include staged, prerecorded videos.

Authorities began moving children from an orphanage in Donetsk, and other residents boarded buses for Russia. Long lines formed at gas stations as more people prepared to leave on their own.