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ADNOC Expects to Get Lower Jan-Dec Naphtha Premiums

Traders are expecting the state-owned refiner to get high single-digit premiums at the very most for the 12-month supplies, against the $10.50-$12.50 a tonne premium to its own price formula, on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, that it fetched in the last round for July 2009-June 2010 cargoes. “I seriously doubt they can roll over premiums they had fetched in the last round, as fundamentals have changed,” said a Northeast Asian trader.

Crack spreads, the premiums/losses obtained from refining Brent crude into naphtha, fell to a four week low on Wednesday at $92.10 a premium, versus a near seven-month high on Sept. 3 at $125.53 a tonne.

ADNOC is expected to have additional supplies once its new condensate splitter and gas field come online from next year, adding to the new supplies coming out of Qatar next month.

“ADNOC has big export volumes for light naphtha next year due to new gas production. They will have to be reasonable if they want to sell more term volumes,” said a Southeast Asian trader. “If not, they will end up selling spot naphtha, something which they do not like doing,” he added.

ADNOC, which had in the past negotiated with customers including Taiwan CPC, Japanese Marubeni and India’s Haldia Petrochemicals, by faxes and phone calls, will be holding face-to-face talks for the first time in the week of Oct. 19 at its new Singapore office, established around September 2008.

ADNOC, Asia’s third-largest term naphtha supplier, after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, has annual term contracts spanning from January-December, April-March and July-June.

Its January-December 2010 discussion will come after Kuwait’s term talks for supplies lifting during December 2009-November 2010, which is expected to be held around October 12.

“It will probably take the cue from Kuwait, but either way, I am not expecting high premiums from both suppliers,” said another trader.

New Supplies Weigh on Sentiment

The Asian market was grappling with tight spot supplies last month after Europe choked off exports due to refinery run cuts and to meet demand for petrochemical and gasoline production.

But high Indian exports in September at around 850,000 tonnes versus 760,000 tonnes in August, continuous spot exports from Kuwait and unusual spot exports for October lifting from China’s WEPEC and Saudi Aramco helped filled the dent.

ADNOC, which has assigned an official in Singapore earlier this year to deal in naphtha, is expected to have an additional 1.3 million tonnes per year (tpy) of naphtha from a new condensate splitter in Ruwais.

Its gas field production on the other hand is expected to bring online an additional 1.7 million tonnes of naphtha a year. “The new condensate splitter was originally meant to start up last year, but it was delayed again and again,” said a second Northeast Asian trader.

“It should start either by year end, or early next year,” he added.

Adding to this are new supplies from Qatar, which will pump 200,000 tonnes of naphtha a month into the market starting next month, as it has already commissioned a new condensate splitter. “The market is not short of naphtha from the looks of it,” said a fourth trader.