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Deutsche Bank Downgrades ADCB, First Gulf Bank

BANGALORE - Deutsche Bank downgraded Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and First Gulf Bank to “hold” and said a dramatic pull back in economic growth and inaccessibility of capital market funding would combine to cut loan growth in the sector over the next two years.

“We expect the weakest profitability and slowest recovery at ADCB, while FGB’s plans to build a property component in its banking business could backfire,” analyst Zahed Chowdhury wrote in a note to clients dated January 19. Return on equity for Abu Dhabi banks have averaged 19.5 per cent over the last three years, the analyst noted, adding that he now expected profitability to take a hit and remain depressed over the next two years.

“We expect the banks to maintain their market share over the next two years given that we do not expect any bank to want to grow their share of market loans in the current economic environment,” the analyst said. Chowdhury expects the Abu Dhabi banking sector to enter a new non-performing loans cycle that, along with a decline in investments gains, may hit profitability. The analyst estimated that the new non-performing loans cycle could combine with stricter capitalisation conditions from the Central Bank in the region, requiring ADCB to raise more capital during the year.