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Emaar Properties to lead first quarter property earnings in the UAE

DUBAI — Dubai’s Emaar Properties is likely to outperform its rivals in first quarter earnings in the United Arab Emirates while a lack of deliveries will extend the pain for Abu Dhabi’s Aldar Properties.

The UAE’s property sector has been hit hard by the global downturn with house prices in Dubai falling some 60 per cent from their peaks in 2008, while Abu Dhabi, home to most of the country’s oil, has fared better.

Emaar, builder of the world’s tallest tower, which returned to profit in the fourth quarter, is expected to benefit this quarter from the handover of properties, mostly in Dubai, and greater recurring income from its retail and hospitality portfolio, analysts said.

“Emaar will be the best performer,” said Roy Cherry, a property sector analyst at Shuaa Capital.

“We see Emaar continuing its fourth quarter performance with stable earnings,” he added.

The Arab world’s largest listed developer made a net profit of Dh720 million ($196.1 million) in the fourth quarter.

Among its high-profile retails and hospitality assets is Dubai Mall, the world’s largest shopping centre, and the developer also has a joint venture with Italian fashion house Georgio Armani to develop hotels.

The firm’s first quarter net profit is expected to rise 61 per cent year-on-year to Dh 381.1 million according to EFG-Hermes, while HC Brokerage expects a rise of 197 per cent to Dh704 million.

Contractors in Dubai are also expected to perform better than the last quarter as the heavy impact of provisions and impairments will likely be reduced.

Arabtec, the United Arab Emirates largest contractor by market value, reported its first ever quarterly loss in the fourth quarter after a charge of about $80 million for bad debts, missing analysts forecasts.

“We expect the second half of 2010 to be more of an earnings driver for the UAE real estate and construction sector, given land deliveries and a likely pick up in activity,” said Sana Kapadia, vice-president of equity research at EFG.

“Hence the first quarter is likely to be an extension of some of the trends observed in the final quarter of 2009, but of course, it depends on a case by case basis,” added Kapadia.

Some analysts are expecting Aldar Properties, Abu Dhabi’s largest developer by market value and Dubai’s second largest developer, Deyaar to suffer losses in the first quarter due to the lack of deliveries.

“With no major deliveries in the first quarter and no expectations of fair value gains, we expect Aldar to stay in negative territory,” said Shuaa’s Cherry.

Shuaa expects Aldar to report a loss of around Dh87.5 million, after the developer made its first ever quarterly loss of Dh570 million in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, EFG is forecasting a loss of Dh26.7 million for Deyaar.

Deyaar’s Chief Executive Officer Markus Giebel told Reuters in February it is on track to hand over six projects in 2010. —