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House Prices Could Plunge by 70pc: UBS
DUBAI - House prices in Dubai could plunge by as much as 70 per cent this year from their peak levels in 2008, as most investors do not see headwinds easing, UBS Bank said.
UBS said that the housing sector in Dubai will face a substantial glut next year, while demand will continue to be weak, as many of the expatriates who drove the property boom in recent years are losing their jobs and are returning home.
“In our view, we are still in relatively early stages of the property downcycle in UAE, and we believe risk-reward profits are not yet compelling for investors to consider market re-entry, hence, continued price declines are expected,” said UBS.
UBS said that the average house prices in Dubai will likely drop to about Dh500 per square foot this year, compared to its peak of Dh1,850 in the fourth quarter of 2008. Prices have already fallen by 25 per cent to about Dh1,400 per square foot.
Further adding to the property market woes of Dubai is the projected further decline in expatriate population, which will fall by 8 per cent this year and two per cent in 2010, said UBS.
“We would not be surprised to find Dubai residential vacancy rates reach between 25 per cent to 30 per cent by end of 2010.”
UBS said Abu Dhabi is faring better than Dubai because of its better fundamentals but that it is also facing
weak demand.
UBS has also downgraded Emaar Properties, Union Properties and Aldar Properties, saying the UAE’s property market fundamentals have weakened in the first quarter.
It cited existing investors defaulting on payments, insignificant incremental financing for both infrastructure projects and mortgage issuance and pick-up in project cancellations.
UBS lowered its price target for Emaar to Dh2.10 from Dh2.30 . Its price estimate for Union Properties is now at Dh0.65 from Dh0.70. Aldar Properties’ price target was reduced to Dh4.50 from Dh5. It initiated Abu Dhabi-based Sorouh Real Estate with a “sell” rating and a target price of Dh2.50.
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