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MEED Forecasts Promises Long-term Outlook for ME Steel Market
DUBAI - After five years of strong growth, the collapse in global commodity prices in the second half of 2008 and the sharp slowdown experienced in the Middle East construction sector have cast long shadows over the regional steel industry, according to Middle East Steel 2009, a report published this week by MEED Insight.
“With high stockpiles, particularly in the UAE, and slackening demand, steel prices are expected to remain subdued in 2009 in the range of $500 a tonne,” the report states. “This would be a third of what they were at their peak in mid-2008, but a slight increase on their recent lows recorded in November 2008.”
With the Middle East being a major importer of semi-finished products and current global steel demand weak, the region is likely to become a focus for international steel suppliers, with the prospect of dumping returning.
If this occurs, governments are likely to re-impose custom duties on steel imports in an attempt to protect local manufacturing, although such moves will do little to bolster prices.
According to Middle East Steel 2009, the longer-term outlook for the Middle East steel market is more promising. “Given an expected rebound in the oil price in 2010, fuelling economic growth and capital investment, steel demand is set to rise over the next five years. Major, government-backed players in the regional steel industry appear to be well insulated from the effects of the global slowdown.
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