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Gold seen rallying by year-end

Gold may extend a rally through to the end of December, paring the first full-year loss since 2000, as rising physical demand across Asia helps to counter a selloff in exchange-traded products led by billionaire John Paulson.

Prices may reach $1,450 an ounce by the end of the year, according to a median of estimates in a survey of 11 traders, jewellers and analysts who attended the India Gold Convention in Jaipur on August 16-17. The metal, which was at $1,373.97 on Monday, fell 18 per cent this year.

Bullion rebounded since reaching a 34-month low in June as demand for jewellery, bars and coins soared from India to China and Turkey. The rally may help stem the outflow from exchange- traded products, or ETPs, after gold plunged 23 per cent last quarter, the most since at least 1920. Consumer demand in India soared 71 per cent in the second quarter, while in China it jumped 87 per cent, according to the WGC.

Bullion traded as high as $1,384.55 an ounce on Monday, rebounding from $1,180.50 on June 28, the lowest in almost three years. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities rose 0.5 per cent since the start of January and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 9.6 per cent. Treasuries declined 3.6 per cent, the Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index shows.

“There is some evidence in the gold market that demand is starting to stabilise following the huge outflows from ETFs and futures in the first half of the year,” JPMorgan Chase & Co said in a report.