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Air India crash: Second guessing the cause is futile

The main question will be centred on why the aircraft split and at what point of the runway where even a downdraft or wind shear could have aggravated the contact impact

Air accident investigations are not completed overnight. They often take months and crucial to a conclusion are the data in the flight recorder and the cockpit voice recorder. Second guessing the cause of the crash of the Air India Express 737-800 from Dubai to Kozhikode is an exercise in futility. India's track record of investigating air accidents is not sterling and usually the Directorate of Civil Aviation sits in judgement on itself and hence air safety standards are largely up in the air.
Few of the recommendations made after the various judicial committees post an accident are ever implemented. Often the judge in command has to be educated on the rudiments of aviation.
However, the eagerness to jump in with a conclusion so premature as to be laughable is tangible. India's Minister for Civil Aviation, Hardeep Singh Puri, reportedly feels the plane skidded because of the rain, overrunning the strip. He should not be making any conjectures until at least the basic investigation is completed. It is highly irresponsible. That includes the conversations between the flight deck and Air Traffic Control, the tapes in the cockpit voice recorders with three microphones active in the flight deck. This is basic common sense. No one knows what happened there and what strands roped together to cause the crash.
Bad weather, aquaplaning (a phenomenon where tyres do not grip the surface and skim and skid like the stone on a pond) coming in hot and high on a plateau table top runway, ATC absence of warnings to go alternate after an abortive attempt, even low visibility, soggy brakes failing to get purchase on the service, waterlogging of the runway, even a sudden tailwind will all go into the mix.
An error that was widely reported the evening of the crash was that visibility was a poor 2,000 metres. On a rainy night in monsoon season, the visual range of 2 klicks is way beyond adequate. A minima of 400 metres on visual is often acceptable.
The main question will be centred on why the aircraft split and at what point of the runway where even a downdraft or wind shear could have aggravated the contact impact.
The convenience of blaming the pilots must be placed on hold. Captain Sathe was a very experienced IAF pilot and an experimental test pilot at that so other factors would have and could have contributed to the tragedy. Anyone who deals in such investigations will concede that it is usually several developments and little crises that create a rope to disaster. It is seldom singular. However, there is always a tendency to go for the pilot error option because dead men cannot defend themselves and it kind of suits everyone else including the carrier, the manufacturer, the power plant company, the insurance underwriters for the hull and the management.
The foolishness of brandishing theories often thwarts the probe, goes violently against the tenets of basic air safety and that is why far too frequently no lessons are learnt from tragedy. One theory that borders on the absurd is that these pilots have not trained and come up to par because of Covid 19 and therefore are rusty. It might sound sensible and refresher courses must be mandated but commanders with several thousand hours in the air do not flounder into such catastrophes. Similarly, casting suspicions on the co-pilot is equally unfair. The Karipur airport runway should have a central row of lighting to make the approach easier. Was such a facility available for this flight or did it come in on what is called a black hole approach?
Even so early in the process there is talk of the pilots being under stress because they have taken a 60 per cent salary cut and this is affecting their performance. Really? An ace test pilot sat there and said they cut my salary I am going to prang this plane?
For now, let us pray for the dead and the survival of the injured in hospital. The one saving grace in this terrible night is that according to eyewitnesses and immediate security measures there have been no reports of pillaging the cargo and luggage. Don't be so surprised. Aircraft that have crashed outside airport perimeters are often cleaned out by nearby populations. Not only is it a dastardly act and one that makes you sick to the stomach but it totally destroys the evidence lying in the wreckage placement where every piece tells a story of what happened.

It is known in aviation circles that Runway 10 at this airport is dangerous and this has been known since 2011 when an air safety committee concluded that it was a hazard because there was no refuge for a flight that overshot, only a 70-feet drop.
The recommendation like many others rusts in its own glory. Even audit reports at the ministry have underlined this aspect.
In fact, in the aviation circles they couple Kozhikode with Mangalore as not just adequate but downright the most dangerous. -bikram@khaleejtimes.com