Crisis brewing in Bosnia ahead of elections

The Russian threat to Ukraine is not the only potential crisis in Eastern Europe this year. Bosnia and Herzegovina is heading for a period of deep political turmoil, with a key election scheduled for October.

Bosnia has never been an uncomplicated place. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, it generated one crisis after another, eventually contributing to the outbreak of World War I. Then, with the breakup of Yugoslavia in the late 20th century, it was the site of a brutal war between Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks), Serbs, and Croats.

The Dayton Accords ended the conflict in 1995, after more than 100,000 people had been killed – including in the genocidal Srebrenica massacre that July – and after millions more had been driven from their homes. The next step was to build a functioning state out of the wreckage. But the armies of the three groups were the only functioning structures left, and many local leaders saw peace as little more than the continuation of war by other means. Hopes that a new generation of non-nationalist leaders would rise out of the ashes were soon dashed.

Although international aid has transformed the country, covering up most of the traces of war, its politics remain profoundly dysfunctional due to the continued political dominance of nationalist parties. As a result, the prospect of Bosnia joining the European Union looks increasingly distant.

In its 2021 annual assessment of Bosnia, the European Commission notes that “political leaders continued to engage in divisive rhetoric and unconstructive political disputes.” There has been virtually no progress in meeting the 14 benchmarks for starting EU accession talks, and “during the pandemic, the negative effects of widespread corruption and signs of political capture continued to manifest strongly.” Neither judicial officeholders nor political leaders have managed to tackle these problems.

Moreover, owing to the “generalised phenomenon of corruption” and an “inefficient and oversized” public sector, Bosnia’s per capita GDP remains just one-third of the EU average. An estimated half-million people have left the country over the last few years, draining it of precious young talent.

Bosnia should be doing much better than it is 26 years after the war ended.

Instead, another deep crisis looms. Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is beating the nationalist drum and pushing for Republika Srpska (one of the country’s two most autonomous regions) to assert even greater independence vis-à-vis the central government. The rhetoric is intensifying on all sides, leading to calls by Christian Schmidt, the EU High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, for another international intervention.

But this is the wrong medicine for what ails Bosnia. One factor in the current political crisis is a controversial new law banning genocide denial, imposed last summer by the outgoing international high representative just days before he left office. Bosnian Serbs immediately responded by pulling out of common state functions, and Dodik has since issued strident ultimatums.

Dodik occasionally calls for Republika Srpska to break away from Bosnia entirely. This rhetoric gets him headlines, but it should not be taken seriously. After all, both Serbia and Russia have clearly called for Bosnia’s territorial integrity to be respected.

Carl Bildt is a former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden.