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Iran — final round

WITH the Bush administration’s stay at the White House due to expire in just over a year, it cannot be long before the neocon hierarchy finally unveils its Iran specific policy. Clearly sanctions and diplomatic assaults have not had the effect Washington presently desires.

And surely that is not where Bush and Cheney are going to leave it, especially considering ‘all but the kitchen sink’ approach employed by them while Iran has literally stuck with one line, that come what may Teheran is going to press ahead with uranium enrichment.

The continuously ticking clock also implies that we must be at or around the final round of diplomatic and rhetorical exchanges before a concrete plan of action is unveiled. Therefore, three statements are important to note. Firstly, IAEA chief El-Baradei’s recent warning against hyping the Iran issue after France’s new government fancied flirting with the matter proved the IAEA continues to be mindful of the road that led to the Iraq war, and will have nothing to do with an invasion. That much is reflected in his choice of words, that Iran poses “no clear and present danger”. There would be no technical rationale justifying an assault.

Then came Condi Rice’s rebuke, rudely reminding El-Baradei to mind his own business and stay well clear of the diplomacy realm in a tone clearly betraying the unerring arrogance of the world’s most powerful power brokers. Her quick ‘all options are still on the table’ recap, if anything, bolstered the uneasy feeling that sabre-rattling might be gaining in momentum around Washington.

And finally there’s the Iranian president to complete the puzzle. Speaking at a parade marking the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq war, Ahmadinejad minced few words while reminding “those who prevented Iran, at the height of the war, from getting even barbed wire” just what a force has now been “built by the mighty hands and brains of experts at Iran’s armed forces”. There is little to suggest he’ll take any different sentiments to the UN, where he is scheduled to speak next week.

So, with the battle lines drawn, all that remains to be seen is the magnitude of the US response once it puts its muscle where its mouth is. As the entire region waits while the US mulls over its response, there is a striking element in the former’s concern, that striking at Iran at this point in time would amount to striking a dagger in the heart of the Middle East, and the hell that would be unleashed would end all partakers. Clearly, the outcome would be to no-one’s advantage.

In the final round of analysis, it is urged that further diplomacy be chosen as the way out of the logjam.