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Consider the following choices: Whether to invest in buying a house, end a long-term relationship, or move to another country. When we face these and other "crossroad" choices, we want to get the decision right. To do that we need to imagine the various futures that each choice provides. For example, "What will it be like if we buy a house now/end the relationship/move?" Prospective imagining and anticipation of these various future possibilities are generally considered hallmarks of good decision-making.
But is there a point at which we can think too much? Can we spend too much time anticipating possible futures? And if so - what are the consequences?
We are interested in the concept of overthinking choices. We coined the term "redundant deliberation" to describe occasions where an individual becomes stuck in a perpetual loop of considering all the various options but with diminishing returns on their cognitive effort.
When individuals are engaged in redundant deliberation they tend to do two things. First, they keep seeking more information even though it is evident that in doing so there is nothing new that would help inform their choice. Second, they continue to oscillate between imaging alternate future states.
At the point where effort exceeds any new information to help inform choice and where there are no useful differences to the imagined future modelled states, you can think too much about a problem. More concerning is that overthinking can lead to unnecessary delay and decision inertia. Inertia is problematic when the failure to act in time (or at all) carries significant negative consequences.
The concept of the negative consequences of overthinking rather than simply just getting on with committing has also emerged in philosophical conundrums. For example, in "Buridan's Ass," an ass which has travelled for many miles without food or water is both starving and dehydrated. It sees a pail of water and a bale of hay. It thinks to itself,
"Should I drink first or eat? Which must I do first? Am I more hungry than thirsty? What happens if I drink first (as opposed to eat?)" and so on. In spending all this time thinking about preferences and where both are very important, in needless delay the ass dies of both hunger and starvation. Sometimes, there is a place to think and sometimes a place to act.
We have found that people who excel in overcoming overthinking tend to be very goal focused, have an excellent appreciation of whether (or not) they need to act imminently (or use the appropriate delay to find out more information). Importantly, they are more able to tolerate the least bad options. This means that they adopt a satisficing approach to decision-making. Those who are maximisers tend to imagine that there must be some other third option that is not bad at all and in doing so run the risk of failing to appreciate a tolerable risk is better than doing nothing. Of course, maximising can be advantageous if there really is a third way or at least a way to slow an incident down but if that is not the case a satisficing mindset may be more appropriate. It is knowing what mindset to deploy when that is key.
-Psychology Today
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