Russia borrows from US playbook during Cuban missile crisis

Nations big and small across the world are closely watching the drama unfolding in Ukraine to assess what is in store for them in a fluid, ever-changing world. At the heart of the face-off between the US and Russia is clashing visions of nationality and sovereignty, and the use of foreign policy and military tools for strategic dominance.

A resurgent Russia is now pushing back at American primacy established at the conclusion of the Cold War that the US won decisively. Moscow is gambling that a domestically fractious America won’t be able to get its polity and its European allies together.

For Washington, not calling Russia’s bluff would be tantamount to conceding America’s weakening status as a global power. Such an admission will embolden Russia — and China — to further expand their territorial claims based on historical grievances — real or perceived. Taiwan, for instance, will be quaking in its boots.

Let’s unpack this a little more. The American case for expanding Nato right to Russia’s doorstep is that nations ought to be free to choose their partners and alliances. This is great in principle. But large nations also like to influence, if not exercise dominance, over smaller or weaker neighbours. To paraphrase Vladimir Putin, free choice for one nation ends where the security concern of another begins. In his view, the US and Nato have overreached. Have they?

To appreciate the view, consider if the US will accept Russia forging a military alliance with Mexico and Canada, much less allow Moscow to station ballistic nuclear missiles there. When the USSR went that route with Cuba during the Cold War, it led the world to the brink of a nuclear war. Havana continues to pay the price for its impertinence to this day.

It is instructive to study some of the language accompanying the Cuban missile crisis because Russia is adopting from the American playbook then. President Kennedy used the term naval “quarantine” for the US blockade to prevent Soviet missile supply to Cuba because a blockade would have been an act of war by legal definition. Which is why Putin has sent “peacekeepers” to Ukrainian territories after having them “legally cede” to Russia, and why some Americans tried to suggest it is not an invasion. From such semantics is peace salvaged from the prospect of war.

Somewhere in between is a world where it should be possible to convince one side not to overreach and to persuade another side not to redraw boundaries by force.