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Trump shocker on Golan rubs salt into old wounds

Proclamation is part of Trump's base-pleasing behaviour, like his earlier announcements.

Time was when a US president, a Republican at that, had the common sense to tie American aid for Israel to stopping settlement growth in occupied Palestinian territories. Even though George HW Bush was hardly ill-disposed towards Israel, he delayed a loan guarantee to Yitzhak Shamir's government in 1991 in an effort to preserve US credibility as a fair negotiator with Arab countries.
The relationship between Bush's predecessor, Ronald Reagan, and Israeli leaders was even more turbulent - and unthinkable by today's standards. For instance, the Reagan administration imposed an embargo on continued sales of F-16 aircraft because Israel had "violated its commitment to use the planes only in self-defence" after it destroyed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor during Saddam Hussein's rule in a pre-emptive strike in 1981.
Now fast-forward to 2017. The man occupying the White House is so fulsome in his appreciation of the US-Israeli partnership that Israeli politicians probably squirm with embarrassment in private even as they publicly respond with praises and thanks. The latest example of such behaviour is President Donald Trump's signing of a declaration on March 25 recognising the Israeli-annexed Syrian portion of Golan Heights as Israeli territory.
Denunciations have predictably poured in from around the world given that Israel's control over the area is the subject of at least two UN Security Council resolutions: Resolution 497, which calls Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights in 1981 as "null and void and without international legal effect", and Resolution 242, which underscores the "inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war".
For all we know, the Golan Heights proclamation is part of a pattern of Trump's base-pleasing behaviour, like his shock announcements in December last year of US military withdrawals from northeastern Syria and Afghanistan. There is also speculation that Trump timed the declaration to do his bit for the re-election of a fellow rightwinger, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in the April 9 Knesset vote.
Whatever the thinking behind the sudden overturning of a decades-old US position, it is hard to see how the recognition of Israel's Golan annexation advances the security interests of either country. Indeed, the announcement is such a gratuitous propaganda gift to America's strategic rivals, to say nothing of violent extremists, that no amount of condemnation can be enough to mitigate its ridiculousness. So far, all that Trump has achieved is to give Bashar Al Assad's regime and its sponsors a handle to attack any country that would still want the US to play the interlocutor's role in future negotiations between Israelis and Arabs.
The Golan declaration further threatens to rub salt into the wounds inflicted by Trump's controversial decision of December 2017 to recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital and launch the relocation of the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to the contested city. While politically aware people around the world may be able to differentiate between the recklessness of a particular president and the coherence of his country's foreign-policy consensus, many others will be unable or unwilling to interpret Trump's consistent refusal to show restraint and evenhandedness in matters concerning Israel as anything other than a humiliation for Arabs.
Unsurprisingly, there could be strategic ramifications far beyond the Syrian theatre. According to Ian Bremmer of the risk consultancy Eurasia Group, the Golan declaration "would be used by the Russians to legitimise their annexation of Crimea".
If it's of any consolation, Trump's recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights does not make any difference. As the UN secretary-general's spokesman pointed out, "It is clear that the status of the Golan has not changed. The UN's policy ... has not changed."
In any case, a little over two years into Trump's presidency, rivals as well as allies of the US know better than to allow their emotions and policies to be influenced by a mercurial master of low expectations. The goal every day is to stay under the radar and hope that an adviser or friend will be able to persuade Trump, in the fullness of time, that "if it ain't broke, don't fix it".
Considering how important it is to avoid doing anything that undermines the security and stability of the Middle East, it is essential that no US ally, big or small, takes the cue from Trump's Golan recognition - especially when there is no dearth of decisions taken by two revered Republican presidents, Bush and Reagan, to serve as policy precedents.
Arnab Neil Sengupta is an independent journalist and commentator on Middle East