Truss or Sunak, the next British PM has a mountain to climb

A major imponderable for the Conservative party is Truss or Sunak leading the party into the next general election in 2024. It is difficult to see at this stage either of them winning against a resurgent Labour party under Keir Starmer; besides, Boris Johnson remains hugely popular among party members. Electoral history is also against the Tories winning another election: they formed the government in 2010 (in coalition with Liberal Democrats), won outright in 2015 under David Cameron, formed a minority government under Theresa May after the 2017 election, and won a large majority under Johnson in 2019. The issue before the party is that neither Truss nor Sunak has the charisma that Johnson has; besides, despite the unsavoury reasons for Johnson’s resignation, he remains more popular than either of them within the party, as so many opinion polls have indicated. So watch out for Johnson batting on the front foot during the 2024 election.

The Truss and Sunak show presents a new episode of blue-on-blue attacks, but some interesting lines emerged during the election. Sunak revealed that he has been trying to get in touch with Johnson, but has not been able to speak to him since his resignation as chancellor. Johnson has not been taking Sunak’s calls, for understandable reasons. Many in Westminster believe that it was Sunak’s resignation that dealt the biggest blow to Johnson’s prime ministership, triggering the cascade of resignations by ministers that eventually led to Johnson announcing his decision to quit. The issue of trust, or lack of trust, is spoken in the same breath by Johnson’s allies when speaking of Sunak. It is also no secret that Johnson and his allies have been supporting the Truss campaign. Johnson not taking Sunak’s calls is perhaps part of the cut-and-thrust of politics, but many recall that it was Johnson who promoted Sunak from a junior minister to the top table as the chancellor of the exchequer.

Also creating a frisson was a leaked recording from the time Truss was chief secretary to the Treasury (until 2019), reigniting a debate whether British workers are ‘idlers’ and whether they need to work as hard as foreign workers to increase productivity. She is heard saying that British workers need “more graft”, suggesting that they lacked the “skill and application” of foreign workers. Her remarks echoed a controversial passage about British workers being among the “worst idlers in the world” in the book Britannia Unchained, which she co-authored in 2012, but when reminded of it, Truss said she did not write the chapter, saying: “Each author wrote a different chapter. Dominic Raab (deputy prime minister) wrote that chapter – he’s backing Rishi Sunak”. In the leaked recording, she says, “If you look at productivity, it’s very, very different in London from the rest of the country. But basically … this has been a historical fact for decades. Essentially it’s partly a mindset and attitude thing, I think. It’s working culture, basically. If you go to China it’s quite different, I can assure you”. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexit opportunities minister, backed Truss’ comments.