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Truth out on Iran

THE National Intelligence Estimate released yesterday in the United States has poured cold water over the hopes of those itching for a fight with Iran. The NIE report has confirmed what Iran has been saying for years now. That it is not building nuclear weapons but is only pursuing a peaceful nuclear power programme — a right that’s guaranteed to every nation under NPT.

The NIE disclosures come as a huge blow to the Bush administration and its foreign policy that has been over the past few years been completely dominated by Iran.

And, in equal measure, it has raised hopes in the Middle East for diplomacy to take the upper hand in finding an amicable solution to the issue between US and Iran.

Not that the NIE is above board, considering the historic blunder it committed on Iraq front. Five years ago, it claimed that Saddam Hussein was developing Weapons of Mass Destruction; something that provided the basis for the attack on Iraq.

Be that as may, what is also obvious is that the NIE has, in the least, brought down the ostensible threat level. It is evident that the scenario is improving; not worsening. For, while the agency’s earlier assessment was that Iran was “determined to develop nuclear weapon”, the view now is that the country had halted its so-called weapons programme in 2003 and that the suspension remains on hold. Even granting that Iran might still be “developing the technical means that could be used to build a bomb”, as the agency says, its new stand opens new possibilities of resolving the issue.

Add to this the fact that Iran has all along been insisting that its dabbling with the nuclear technology is solely aimed at producing more energy to feed its industrial development urges — a right that’s guaranteed to every nation under NPT.

No wonder Democrats have been quick to call for a change in Washington’s Iran policy. They are aware that their country can ill afford another war, what with the chaos and confusion that cloud its Iraq engagement. Moreover, the question is also whether President Bush should commit the nation to another war when his administration is entering its final year.

Predictably, Iran has not only welcomed the NIE report but also made it clear yet again it has no plans to make the bomb. President Ahmedinejad’s conciliatory tone at the GCC summit he addressed in Doha on Monday, cannot be seen in isolation from the NIE report. Put together, they strengthen the view that diplomacy is the only way ahead; and the way forward for a settlement of outstanding issues between Iran and the West; and between Iran and its neighbours. Iran can certainly use some help from close neighbours like UAE and Saudi Arabia.