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US must step up diplomacy to counter Iran's ambitions

Iranians are being urged to depose the regime and install a liberal government that will end foreign misadventures and pursue economic prosperity.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made his first major speech as secretary at the Heritage Foundation on May 21. His remarks are a significant escalation in the conflict between Iran and the US and signal a hardened strategy going forward.
Pompeo specifically exhorted "the Australians, the Bahrainis, the Egyptians, the Indians, the Japanese, the Jordanians, the Kuwaitis, the Omanis, the Qataris, the Saudis, South Korea, the UAE" to join hands with him in his new aggressive approach. So, what did we learn from the new Secretary and how will this affect the region?
Pompeo started by explaining that the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) because "it failed to guarantee the safety of the American people from the risk created" by the Iranian regime. He said "No more wealth creation for Iranian kleptocrats. No more acceptance of missiles landing in Riyadh and in the Golan Heights. No more cost-free expansions of Iranian power."
The reasoning for Trump's withdrawal - in addition to the deal's well publicised flaws - was the financial ability it gave the regime to destabilise the region: "The government spent its newfound treasure fueling proxy wars across the Middle East and lining the pockets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis." Pompeo claimed that "Qasem Soleimani has been playing with house money that has become blood money. Wealth created by the West has fueled his campaigns."
Pompeo then developed a case for Iran being "the world's largest sponsor of terror," and blamed it for its role in the Syrian conflict, for supporting Hezbollah, aiding Shia militant groups in Iraq, providing missiles to the Houthis in Yemen, and supplying weapons and funding to the Taleban in Afghanistan. Pompeo went on to accuse Iran's "Quds Force . (of organizing) covert assassination operations in the heart of Europe."
Pompeo threatened to "apply unprecedented financial pressure on the Iranian regime . being the strongest sanctions in history" and listed new sanctions that had been announced since the scrapping of the JCPOA. He explained that the goal was to force Iran "to make a choice: either fight to keep its economy off life support at home or keep squandering precious wealth on fights abroad" because it would not be able to afford to do both.
Reminiscent of rhetoric from George W Bush's era, Pompeo made a strong push for human rights and freedom in Iran. Echoing Bush, he said the US "stands with those longing for . economic opportunity, government transparency, fairness, and greater liberty," and expressed hope that the regime "will come to its senses and support - not suppress - the aspirations of its own citizens."
Pompeo also laid out the clearest roadmap for what it expects from Iran: a list of 13 steps. These are: Declaration and abandonment of nuclear programme; stopping enrichment and plutonium reprocessing; full access for IAEA to all sites; end missile proliferation and development of its own programme; Return of prisoners; end support for terrorist groups; respect Iraqi sovereignty and end support for Shia militants; stop support for Houthis; withdraw all forces from Syria; cease support for Taliban; end IRG Qods Force's support for militants globally; end threats to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and UAE; and stop threats to international shipping and cyber-attacks.
The Secretary will surely know that the regime is unlikely to yield on any of these demands. So, if the demands have to be met, we need a very different government. In that sense, the list is directed more at Iran's opposition groups and the rest of the world. Iran's people are being urged to depose the regime and install a liberal government that will end foreign misadventures and pursue economic prosperity for its citizens. Although this is difficult to achieve, the Trump Administration's calculation is that extremely powerful sanctions will cripple the country's economy and spark unrest. In addition, targeted individual sanctions might also incite internal conflict within the regime and destabilise it.
Pompeo also had a message for European leaders who support JCPOA: "those doing prohibited business in Iran (will be held) to account."
Pompeo closed by quoting Trump's words from October, pledging "total solidarity with (Iranian) people (who) long to reclaim their country's proud history, its culture, its civilisation," and hoping "to see them prosper and flourish . as never before."
The secretary's words have been followed by actions. The US has imposed sanctions on Mehdi Azarpisheh, Mohammad Jafari, Mahmud Kazemabad, Javad Shir Amin, and Sayyed Mohammad Tehrani for supporting the Houthis. Iran has also retaliated by escalating the rhetoric. Ismail Kowsari, a commander with Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Iran "will deliver a strong punch to the mouth of the American secretary of state and anyone who backs them." Bagheri, the Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, called US leaders "disloyal, cruel, criminal, isolated, angry, corrupt, and on the Zionist regime's payroll".
Clearly, the new US strategy has had some immediate effects. There are fissures in Europe - Poland has broken with the EU and expressed support for Trump's position. But words have to be followed up with further actions - sustained diplomacy with China, the EU, and India to isolate the Iranian regime. Those efforts, rather than aggressive rhetoric, are more likely to deliver lasting results.
- Dr Sandeep Gopalan is the pro vice-chancellor for academic innovation and a professor of law at Deakin University